30 Fern Ave

Colonie, NY 12205

$193,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,281 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,374/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,012
• Tax + insurance: −$369
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $495/mo
• Annual: $5,937/yr
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.99%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $54,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $193k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $193k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#37 in NY, #572 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, cost of living D.
• South Colonie Central School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #215 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Veeder Elementary School (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 436 students, 32% FRL); Lisha Kill Middle School (math 44% / reading 55%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 628 students, 33% FRL); Colonie Central High School (math 96% / reading 72%, grade A, #404 of 1,100 statewide, top 37%, 1,538 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 19% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $193k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.7% in Colonie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.