30 Fern Ave · Colonie, NY 12205

$193,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,281 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1940 4,356 sqft lot Est $333k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD DEAL -- Fair Condition

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Space for 4 vehicles total (1 garage space)
• Utilities: 150 Amp electric service; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Brick, shingle siding and wood siding exterior; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the first floor; Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $193k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $193k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.8% in Colonie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#37 in NY, #572 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, cost of living D.
• South Colonie Central School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #215 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Veeder Elementary School (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 436 students, 32% FRL); Lisha Kill Middle School (math 44% / reading 55%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 628 students, 33% FRL); Colonie Central High School (math 96% / reading 72%, grade A, #404 of 1,100 statewide, top 37%, 1,538 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 19% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $193k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $193,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.99%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $333,060
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Wilbur St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,250 (-2%)	9mo	$235,500	$188	78
48 Tennessee Ave	0.15mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,306 (+2%)	7mo	$227,000	$174	77
4146 Albany St	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,242 (-3%)	8mo	$280,000	$225	72
59 Virginia Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-0%)	17mo	$295,000	$230	72
10 Dunning Ave	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,155 (-10%)	8mo	$330,000	$286	69
59 Reber St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-10%)	7mo	$316,000	$274	58
21 Campbell Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-10%)	8mo	$339,000	$294	58
19 Maryland Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-13%)	9mo	$300,000	$268	57
39 Reber St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-10%)	2mo	$335,000	$291	56
15 Merrill St	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,440 (+12%)	10mo	$315,000	$219	51
27 Emery Ave	0.49mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,375 (+7%)	11mo	$286,000	$208	51
65 Brent St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+5%)	12mo	$350,000	$260	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $303
• Equity at exit: $28,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $41,104
• Equity at exit: $16,687

Cash invested: $54,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12205

• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,012
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,462/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,748

Max offer price $193,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $604	-5% $549	+0% $495	+5% $440	+10% $386
Rent	-10% $307	-5% $401	+0% $495	+5% $589	+10% $682
Rate	-1.0pp $592	-0.5pp $544	base $495	+0.5pp $445	+1.0pp $394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,250
• Closing costs: $5,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $193,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $193,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   remarks 493-char remark
4. 2026-06-13
   listed $193,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,462 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,462 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,811
• − Property taxes: −$3,462
• − Insurance: −$965
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − Depreciation: −$5,615
• Taxable income: $3,082
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$740
• After-tax cash flow: $5,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Colonie Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627210
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $69,499
• Composite: 52.97/100
• National rank: #1527
• State rank: #215 of 590 in NY

Livability — Colonie

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #572

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Albany County · 196,626 people
• City population: 25,912
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 25,838
• Household income: $91,020
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 530.0

Population outlook (Albany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 320,794 people
• By 2030: 327,401 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 338,218 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 348,467 · +8.6%
• By 2075: 381,693 · +19.0%
• By 2100: 393,809 · +22.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Asian 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Albany

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.8) · D 62.9% · R 37.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.8 2020: D+31.4 2016: D+24.3 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.10%
• Current HPI: 302.9752
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+124.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $193,000 Global MLS
• 2004-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $85,521 Public Records
• 2004-11-11 Sold (MLS) $85,521 Global MLS
• 2004-09-08 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2004-07-15 Listed $65,000 Global MLS
• 2004-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $105,587 Public Records
• 2001-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2001-06-27 Sold (MLS) $88,000 Global MLS
• 2001-05-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2001-02-17 Listed $85,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,462 · -14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.