3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,150 sqft ·
Built 1980
· Manufactured
· Active
· 51 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,805/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$682
Tax + insurance
−$217
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$379
Net cashflow
$528/mo
Annual
$6,335/yr
Cap rate
11.17%
Cash-on-cash
17.40%
DSCR
1.77
1% rule
1.39%
Cash to close
$36,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,080 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
Columbia Union (rural): math 22% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #383 of 517 in CA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PF50B896T383PV
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29