10956 Green St #152 · Columbia, CA 95310

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,150 sqft · Manufactured · 51 Days on market

Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This triple wide home has many recent upgrades, including a newer 25 year roof, newer evaporative cooler, newer hot water heater, newer outdoor carpet on front and back porches, low maintenance yard. Generator, Large Storage shed, fireplace.

Key facts

• Low maintenance yard
• Newer roof
• Large storage shed

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER EVAPORATIVE COOLER
• NEWER HOT WATER HEATER
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• GENERATOR
• LARGE STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Columbia Sky Mobile Home Estates
• HOA & community: Pets allowed (cats and dogs; number and size limits, upon approval); Senior community; Community clubhouse; Community pool; Game room; RV parking; Park has metered electric and gas

Exterior

• Parking: Covered tandem parking for 2 vehicles; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Generator; Internet available; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured in park, triple wide; Single-story (street level living)
• Construction: Cement siding; Block foundation; Gunite pool
• Exterior features: Porch with awning(s) and porch steps; Low-maintenance exterior; Shed(s); Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Solid surface counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range / cooktop; Built-in oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on street level; Primary bedroom suite on street level
• Flooring: Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with tub and window
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace (propane); Central air; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Solid surface counters; Family room; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; 220V outlet; Laundry facility on street level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,080 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia Union (rural): math 22% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #383 of 517 in CA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.40%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $12,584
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $54,362
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95310

• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $130,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-04-11
   listed $130,000 Active
5. 2025-03-18
   historical
6. 2025-02-14
   price
7. 2025-01-10
   listed Active
8. 2025-01-09
   historical
9. 2024-12-27
   price
10. 2024-11-15
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $4,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,088
• After-tax cash flow: $5,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia Union
• NCES district ID: 0609480
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,469
• Composite: 22.83/100
• National rank: #8013
• State rank: #383 of 517 in CA

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1080
• US rank: #25332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,783

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Russian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.19%
• Current HPI: 96.2554
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $130,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-03-18 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-01-10 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-01-09 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-11-15 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $205 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.