2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
715 sqft ·
Built 1969
· Manufactured
· Active
· 198 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,819/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$236
Tax + insurance
−$75
HOA
−$573
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$382
Net cashflow
$553/mo
Annual
$6,635/yr
Cap rate
21.04%
Cash-on-cash
52.66%
DSCR
3.34
1% rule
4.04%
Cash to close
$12,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,056 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $35k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 4.9% in Hemet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Kitchen backsplash
— The backsplash appears to have some minor stains and discoloration.
Minor: Bathroom shower curtain
— The shower curtain appears to be slightly worn and could benefit from replacement.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PF82RN3DV11EN0
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29