Carmel Plan

San Antonio, TX 78223

$252,249F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,651 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 215 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,961/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,057
• Tax + insurance: −$654
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-1,162/mo
• Annual: $-13,949/yr
• Cap rate: 2.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.70%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $109,853

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $252k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Grove El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 389 students, 88% FRL); Garner Middle (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 804 students, 83% FRL); Macarthur H S (math 31% / reading 51%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 2,055 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 41% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the North East ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $1,961/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 18% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.