Carmel Plan · San Antonio, TX 78223

$252,249

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,651 sqft · SingleFamily · 215 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Coastline Collection is a new series of single-family homes in the Grace Gardens masterplan in San Antonio, TX, offering affordable new home options with a variety of floorplan designs. Residents will enjoy proximity to Loop 410 for easy access to local shopping, dining and entertainment options. Outdoor recreation is a short drive away on Calaveras Lake, and the community is located near Brooks City Base, perfect for military families and personnel.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Single family homes
• Calaveras lake

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
• GRACE GARDENS MASTERPLAN
• PROXIMITY TO LOOP 410
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• CALAVERAS LAKE
• NEAR BROOKS CITY BASE

🏗️ New construction. The $252,249 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $392,332.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $252k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Grove El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 389 students, 88% FRL); Garner Middle (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 804 students, 83% FRL); Macarthur H S (math 31% / reading 51%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 2,055 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 41% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the North East ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,961/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 18% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $196,068 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.70%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,332
• List price: $252,249
• Delta: -35.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8606 Charro Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,671 (+1%)	18mo	$339,900	$203	75
443 Oak Gln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,683 (+2%)	10mo	$400,000	$238	69
8607 Sagebrush Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,616 (-2%)	3mo	$345,000	$213	65
8811 Pineridge	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,588 (-4%)	13mo	$400,000	$252	61
451 Oak Glen Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,843 (+12%)	4mo	$495,000	$269	58
2938 Chisolm Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,882 (+14%)	17mo	$400,000	$213	56
8523 Sagebrush	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-11%)	2mo	$269,900	$183	53
9230 E Valley View Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,815 (+10%)	10mo	$375,000	$207	49
8715 Oak Ledge	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,511 (-8%)	13mo	$359,000	$238	48
2818 Old Moss	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,876 (+14%)	15mo	$439,900	$234	45
411 Cave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,813 (+10%)	9mo	$399,900	$221	43
318 Laramie	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+9%)	16mo	$495,000	$274	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-143,323
• Equity at exit: $58,498

10-year hold

• IRR: -95.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.20×
• Total profit: $-242,218
• Equity at exit: $33,922

Cash invested: $109,853 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.3 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $290,000 ($196/sqft)
• Median days on market: 112 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78223

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,961 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,057
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$490 /mo · $5,885/yr
• Insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-1,162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,432

Max offer price $224,134

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-891	-5% $-1,027	+0% $-1,162	+5% $-1,298	+10% $-1,434
Rent	-10% $-1,317	-5% $-1,240	+0% $-1,162	+5% $-1,085	+10% $-1,007
Rate	-1.0pp $-965	-0.5pp $-1,063	base $-1,162	+0.5pp $-1,264	+1.0pp $-1,367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,083
• Closing costs: $11,770
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2919 Hitching Post St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,100	$0.95	5d	1	0.32mi
606 Wyndale St San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1714	$1,650	$0.96	0d	1	0.41mi
451 Oak Glen Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$3,850	$2.09	40d	1	0.42mi
451 Oak Glen Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$3,850	$2.09	0d	1	0.42mi
8315 N Vandiver Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,330	$1.56	63d	1	0.43mi
427 Laramie Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	1916	$3,500	$1.83	112d	1	0.49mi
427 Laramie Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	1916	$3,500	$1.83	113d	1	0.49mi
1422 NE Loop 410 San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	959	$1,165	$1.21	23d	8	0.49mi
8555 Laurens Ln San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,359	$1.52	7d	46	0.50mi
8555 Laurens Ln Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,373	$1.28	106d	1	0.53mi
414 Laramie Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,295	$1.30	119d	1	0.53mi
8730 Sagebrush Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1957	$2,295	$1.17	9d	1	0.59mi
8730 Sagebrush Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1932	$2,295	$1.19	0d	1	0.59mi
515 Cave Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,350	$1.35	0d	1	0.59mi
515 Cave Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,500	$1.44	84d	1	0.59mi
8702 Village Dr San Antonio, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,100	$2.06	9d	3	0.64mi
8702 Village Dr #1306 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	139d	1	0.64mi
2714 Nacogdoches Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1186	$1,500	$1.26	74d	1	0.66mi
33 Lynn Batts Ln San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,877	$1.80	0d	19	0.67mi
2935 Nacogdoches Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,300	$1.30	7d	2	0.68mi
3333 Oakwell Ct Unit 218 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1076	$1,394	$1.30	28d	1	0.72mi
407 Haverford Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1412	$1,600	$1.13	98d	1	0.74mi
3605 Hidden Dr Unit F4 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$1,795	$0.92	6d	1	0.74mi
123 Westchester Dr San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1337	$1,795	$1.34	76d	1	0.75mi
3301 Oakwell Ct San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1065	$1,647	$1.55	9d	1	0.80mi
2606 Country Square St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,500	$1.39	119d	1	0.80mi
231 Middlebury Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1321	$2,100	$1.59	139d	1	0.81mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit A02 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,425	$0.98	0d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Apt X2 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1325	$1,325	$1.00	0d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Apt X8 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1082	$1,079	$1.00	42d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit J02 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1292	$1,225	$0.95	42d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit Y09 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1325	$1,325	$1.00	42d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit X11 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1453	$1,450	$1.00	42d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit X07 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1082	$1,225	$1.13	110d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Apt W10 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,699	$1.17	62d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1292	$1,365	$1.06	81d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit I03 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1292	$1,249	$0.97	93d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Apt Y8 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1325	$1,349	$1.02	98d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit Q01 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1292	$1,249	$0.97	94d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit 218 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1292	$1,215	$0.94	28d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $252,249 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $252,249 Active 214 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $252,249 Active 213 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $252,249 Active 212 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $252,249 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $252,249 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $252,249 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $252,249 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $252,249 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $252,249 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    pricedays on market $252,249 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $247,249 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $246,999 Active 197 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    price $246,999 Active 196 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $243,999 Active 196 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $243,999 Active 195 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $243,999 Active 192 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $243,749 Active 191 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $243,749 Active 190 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $243,749 Active 189 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $243,749 Active 188 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $243,749 Active 186 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $243,749 Active 185 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    price $243,749 Active 184 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $243,499 Active 184 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $243,499 Active 183 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $243,499 Active 182 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $243,499 Active 181 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $243,499 Active 180 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $243,499 Active 179 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $243,499 Active 178 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $243,499 Active 177 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $243,499 Active 176 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    price $243,499 Active 175 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $243,249 Active 175 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $243,249 Active 174 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $243,249 Active 172 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $243,249 Active 171 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    pricedays on market $243,249 Active 170 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $242,999 Active 169 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $242,999 Active 167 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $242,999 Active 166 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $242,999 Active 165 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $242,999 Active 164 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $242,999 Active 161 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $242,999 Active 159 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $242,999 Active 158 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $242,999 Active 156 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $241,999 Active 154 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $241,999 Active 153 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,977
• − Property taxes: −$5,885
• − Insurance: −$1,962
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,882
• − Management: −$1,882
• − Depreciation: −$11,413
• Taxable loss: −$21,473
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,154
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home in the Coastline Collection is move-in ready with new construction and no visible signs of wear or damage. It offers a great value for residents looking for affordable new home options in San Antonio, TX.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak Grove El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Garner Middle F TX #1,317/1,662 Nat'l #10,902/14,009 High Macarthur H S F TX #774/1,632 Nat'l #7,961/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North East ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,715
• Composite: 38.1/100
• National rank: #4276
• State rank: #276 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 2,336,851 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $52,088
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 28% White 16% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.06%
• Current HPI: 265.2235
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $235,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Listed $239,999 Zillow