246 Laurel Ln

Shenandoah Retreat, VA 20135

$379,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 228 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,806/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-890/mo
• Annual: $-10,678/yr
• Cap rate: 3.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.29%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $106,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-890 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (41.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (52.5% below list).
• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (52.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#427 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clarke County Public School District (rural): math 52% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: D.G. Cooley Elementary (math 47% / reading 60%, grade C, #684 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 463 students, 31% FRL); Johnson-Williams Middle (math 49% / reading 68%, grade B, #171 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 425 students, 29% FRL); Clarke County High (math 67% / reading 87%, grade A-, #90 of 319 statewide, top 30%, 693 students, 27% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Clarke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clarke County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $186k; list at $380k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?