246 Laurel Ln · Shenandoah Retreat, VA 20135

$379,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 228 Days on market

Built 1979 0.50 ac lot $432/sqft · 76% above area Est $426k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED $20,000. Immaculate, well-kept home in Bluemont area. Great location in Clarke County's Shenandoah Retreat just off route 7. Lovely Bamboo flooring. Main level has 2 bedrooms and a full bath. Spacious 25x20 family room in basement with another full bath and laundry. Eat-in country kitchen. Barn doors. 3 window air conditioners. Electric baseboard heaters with back up free-standing gas propane heaters if power goes out. Flue for a woodstove. 8x8 shed and 10x12 screened in porch. Beautifully landscaped with shrubs and grasses. Ample off-street parking. Owner totally remodeled this home when he bought it starting with successful foundation water proofing and finishing the basement with large family room, laundry and bath. Nice Park with walking trails near river . Showings are by appointment only, 10:00-4:00 daily.

Key facts

• Shenandoah retreat
• Barn doors
• Bluemont area

Tags

• BLUEMONT AREA
• CLARKE COUNTY
• SHENANDOAH RETREAT
• BAMBOO FLOORING
• EAT-IN COUNTRY KITCHEN
• BARN DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-890 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (41.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (52.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (52.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#427 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clarke County Public School District (rural): math 52% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: D.G. Cooley Elementary (math 47% / reading 60%, grade C, #684 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 463 students, 31% FRL); Johnson-Williams Middle (math 49% / reading 68%, grade B, #171 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 425 students, 29% FRL); Clarke County High (math 67% / reading 87%, grade A-, #90 of 319 statewide, top 30%, 693 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Clarke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Clarke County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $186k; list at $380k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,605 (52.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.29%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 17.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $426,186
• List price: $379,900
• Delta: -10.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $150,069
• Equity at exit: $342,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $486,172
• Equity at exit: $738,062

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20135

• Home prices YoY: 18.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 17.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,195/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-890

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,932

Max offer price $222,712

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-675	-5% $-782	+0% $-890	+5% $-997	+10% $-1,105
Rent	-10% $-1,032	-5% $-961	+0% $-890	+5% $-818	+10% $-747
Rate	-1.0pp $-698	-0.5pp $-793	base $-890	+0.5pp $-988	+1.0pp $-1,088

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,900 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,900 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,900 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,900 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,900 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,900 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,900 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,900 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $379,900 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $379,900 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,900 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,900 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,900 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,900 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    price $379,900 832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (832 chars)

    REDUCED $20,000. Immaculate, well-kept home in Bluemont area. Great location in Clarke County's Shenandoah Retreat just off route 7. Lovely Bamboo flooring. Main level has 2 bedrooms and a full bath. Spacious 25x20 family room in basement with another full bath and laundry. Eat-in country kitchen. Barn doors. 3 window air conditioners. Electric baseboard heaters with back up free-standing gas propane heaters if power goes out. Flue for a woodstove. 8x8 shed and 10x12 screened in porch. Beautifully landscaped with shrubs and grasses. Ample off-street parking. Owner totally remodeled this home when he bought it starting with successful foundation water proofing and finishing the basement with large family room, laundry and bath. Nice Park with walking trails near river . Showings are by appointment only, 10:00-4:00 daily.

16. 2025-11-05
    listed $399,900 Active 832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (832 chars)

    REDUCED $20,000. Immaculate, well-kept home in Bluemont area. Great location in Clarke County's Shenandoah Retreat just off route 7. Lovely Bamboo flooring. Main level has 2 bedrooms and a full bath. Spacious 25x20 family room in basement with another full bath and laundry. Eat-in country kitchen. Barn doors. 3 window air conditioners. Electric baseboard heaters with back up free-standing gas propane heaters if power goes out. Flue for a woodstove. 8x8 shed and 10x12 screened in porch. Beautifully landscaped with shrubs and grasses. Ample off-street parking. Owner totally remodeled this home when he bought it starting with successful foundation water proofing and finishing the basement with large family room, laundry and bath. Nice Park with walking trails near river . Showings are by appointment only, 10:00-4:00 daily.

17. 2024-11-15
    historical
18. 2024-10-06
    price $399,900
19. 2024-09-16
    historical
20. 2024-09-16
    listed $419,999 Active
21. 2024-08-08
    listed $419,999 Active
22. 2024-08-01
    historical
23. 2024-07-19
    price $459,900
24. 2024-07-11
    listed $479,000 Active
25. 2024-07-09
    historical
26. 2023-06-21
    historical
27. 2023-06-03
    historical Active Under Contract
28. 2023-05-24
    listed $399,900 Active
29. 2022-12-31
    historical
30. 2022-12-02
    price $389,000
31. 2022-08-23
    listed $399,900 Active
32. 2015-08-07
    historical
33. 2015-08-07
    historical
34. 2015-08-04
    listed Active
35. 2015-08-04
    listed $212,000
36. 2014-04-01
    soldstatus $186,000
37. 2014-03-28
    soldstatus $186,000
38. 2014-03-28
    soldstatus $186,000 Sold
39. 2014-02-09
    status Contract
40. 2014-02-05
    historical
41. 2013-11-26
    listed $192,500 Active
42. 2013-11-26
    listed $192,500
43. 1995-01-30
    soldstatus $81,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,115 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,920/yr (+$160/mo · 160.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$1,195
• − Insurance: −$2,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$18,019
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,325
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarke County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100870
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $72,709
• Composite: 53.6/100
• National rank: #1439
• State rank: #47 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah Retreat

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #18247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah Retreat, VA
• Population (ZIP): 3,376

Population outlook (Clarke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,102 people
• By 2030: 15,463 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 16,014 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 16,212 · +7.4%
• By 2075: 17,257 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 16,631 · +10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clarke

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 40.8% · R 57.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: R+13.6 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+13.7 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 74.29%
• Current HPI: 478.1048
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+369.0% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $379,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $399,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-06 Price Changed $399,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-16 Listed $419,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-08 Listed $419,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $459,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-11 Listed $479,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-09 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-03 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-24 Listed $399,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-02 Price Changed $389,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-23 Listed $399,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-08-07 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-08-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-08-04 Listed — MRIS
• 2015-08-04 Listed $212,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $186,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-28 Sold (MLS) $186,000 MRIS
• 2014-03-28 Sold (MLS) $186,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-02-09 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-02-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-11-26 Listed $192,500 MRIS
• 2013-11-26 Listed $192,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,195 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.