122 Gulls Cut S

Baytown, TX 77523

$99,800B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,731/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$523
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $485/mo
• Annual: $5,817/yr
• Cap rate: 12.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.67%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.73%
• Cash to close: $27,944

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $690 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: De Zavala El (math 40% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 594 students, 89% FRL); Horace Mann J H (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 811 students, 87% FRL); Lee H S (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,845 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 61% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 4.3% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior siding — Significant weathering and damage.
• Major: Roof — Aged and possibly leaking, with visible damage.
• Major: Fencing — Old and in need of repair or replacement.
• Major: Landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt, detracting from curb appeal.