122 Gulls Cut S · Baytown, TX 77523

$99,800

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 2007 3,075 sqft lot $97/sqft · 39% below area Est $169k · 41% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing starter home or your next investment! 3 bedroom, 2 full bath in quiet Baytown community. 2007 Build! Selling as-is. Hurry for your chance at this fantastic opportunity!

Key facts

• 3,075 sq ft lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 109 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $690 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,818 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.93%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,897
• List price: $99,800
• Delta: -40.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Bluebill Bay S	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+3%)	22mo	$57,000	$54	47
3222 Anglefish Cv	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,166 (+13%)	20mo	$185,000	$159	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $15,968
• Equity at exit: $14,881

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $57,796
• Equity at exit: $8,629

Cash invested: $27,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,739 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$523
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,599/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,118

Max offer price $99,800

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,950
• Closing costs: $2,994
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,800 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,800 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,800 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,800 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,800 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,800 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $99,800 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   status $99,800 Pending 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,800 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,800 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-04-24
    price $104,800 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    Amazing starter home or your next investment! 3 bedroom, 2 full bath in quiet Baytown community. 2007 Build! Selling as-is. Hurry for your chance at this fantastic opportunity!

12. 2026-03-19
    price $109,900 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    Amazing starter home or your next investment! 3 bedroom, 2 full bath in quiet Baytown community. 2007 Build! Selling as-is. Hurry for your chance at this fantastic opportunity!

13. 2026-02-23
    listed $120,000 Active 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    Amazing starter home or your next investment! 3 bedroom, 2 full bath in quiet Baytown community. 2007 Build! Selling as-is. Hurry for your chance at this fantastic opportunity!

14. 2019-02-08
    soldstatus
15. 2019-02-08
    soldstatus
16. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,599 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,599 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,590
• − Property taxes: −$2,599
• − Insurance: −$1,296
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$2,903
• Taxable income: $4,719
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,133
• After-tax cash flow: $4,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $104,800 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $109,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2019-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,599 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.