122 Gulls Cut S · Baytown, TX 77523

$99,800

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 2007 Fair condition 3,075 sqft lot $97/sqft · 39% below area Est $169k · 41% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing starter home or your next investment! 3 bedroom, 2 full bath in quiet Baytown community. 2007 Build! Selling as-is. Hurry for your chance at this fantastic opportunity!

Key facts

• 3,075 sq ft lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 149 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: De Zavala El (math 40% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 594 students, 89% FRL); Horace Mann J H (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 811 students, 87% FRL); Lee H S (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,845 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 61% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 921 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $690 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,824 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.69%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,971
• List price: $99,800
• Delta: -40.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Egret Canal S	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+2%)	4mo	$149,000	$141	81
132 Egret Canal S	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-3%)	12mo	$146,000	$146	73
2418 Bay Oaks Harbor Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,088 (+5%)	28mo	$175,000	$161	61
130 Bluebill Bay S	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+3%)	24mo	$57,000	$54	46
2742 Bay Oaks Harbor Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-10%)	31mo	$160,000	$173	43
3110 Bay Oaks Harbor Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+18%)	2mo	$169,000	$139	42
2815 Bay Oaks Harbor Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+18%)	32mo	$159,900	$131	35
3222 Anglefish Cv	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,166 (+13%)	22mo	$185,000	$159	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $12,611
• Equity at exit: $14,881

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $50,468
• Equity at exit: $8,629

Cash invested: $27,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 921
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,673 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$523
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,599/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,118

Max offer price $99,800

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $495	-5% $467	+0% $439	+5% $410	+10% $382
Rent	-10% $306	-5% $372	+0% $439	+5% $505	+10% $571
Rate	-1.0pp $489	-0.5pp $464	base $439	+0.5pp $413	+1.0pp $386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,950
• Closing costs: $2,994
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-07-28
   days on market $99,800 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-07-26
   days on market $99,800 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-07-24
   days on market $99,800 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-07-23
   days on market $99,800 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-07-22
   days on market $99,800 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-07-21
   days on market $99,800 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-07-20
   days on market $99,800 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-07-18
   days on market $99,800 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-07-18
   days on market $99,800 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-07-16
    days on market $99,800 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-07-15
    days on market $99,800 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-07-14
    days on market $99,800 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-07-13
    days on market $99,800 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-07-13
    days on market $99,800 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-07-11
    days on market $99,800 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-07-10
    days on market $99,800 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-07-09
    days on market $99,800 Active 131 DOM
18. 2026-07-07
    days on market $99,800 Active 129 DOM
19. 2026-07-06
    days on market $99,800 Active 128 DOM
20. 2026-07-06
    days on market $99,800 Active 127 DOM
21. 2026-07-05
    days on market $99,800 Active 126 DOM
22. 2026-07-03
    days on market $99,800 Active 125 DOM
23. 2026-07-02
    days on market $99,800 Active 124 DOM
24. 2026-07-01
    days on market $99,800 Active 123 DOM
25. 2026-06-30
    days on market $99,800 Active 122 DOM
26. 2026-06-29
    days on market $99,800 Active 121 DOM
27. 2026-06-28
    days on market $99,800 Active 120 DOM
28. 2026-06-27
    days on market $99,800 Active 119 DOM
29. 2026-06-26
    days on market $99,800 Active 118 DOM
30. 2026-06-24
    days on market $99,800 Active 116 DOM
31. 2026-06-22
    days on market $99,800 Active 114 DOM
32. 2026-06-21
    days on market $99,800 Active 113 DOM
33. 2026-06-18
    days on market $99,800 Active 110 DOM
34. 2026-06-17
    days on market $99,800 Active 109 DOM
35. 2026-06-16
    days on market $99,800 Active 108 DOM
36. 2026-06-15
    days on market $99,800 Active 107 DOM
37. 2026-06-13
    days on market $99,800 Active 105 DOM
38. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,800 Active 101 DOM
39. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $99,800 Active 99 DOM
40. 2026-06-02
    status $99,800 Pending 98 DOM
41. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,800 Active 98 DOM
42. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,800 Active 97 DOM
43. 2026-04-24
    price $104,800 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    Amazing starter home or your next investment! 3 bedroom, 2 full bath in quiet Baytown community. 2007 Build! Selling as-is. Hurry for your chance at this fantastic opportunity!

44. 2026-03-19
    price $109,900 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    Amazing starter home or your next investment! 3 bedroom, 2 full bath in quiet Baytown community. 2007 Build! Selling as-is. Hurry for your chance at this fantastic opportunity!

45. 2026-02-23
    listed $120,000 Active 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    Amazing starter home or your next investment! 3 bedroom, 2 full bath in quiet Baytown community. 2007 Build! Selling as-is. Hurry for your chance at this fantastic opportunity!

46. 2019-02-08
    soldstatus
47. 2019-02-08
    soldstatus
48. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,599 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,599 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,590
• − Property taxes: −$2,599
• − Insurance: −$1,296
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,606
• − Management: −$1,606
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$2,903
• Taxable income: $4,053
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$973
• After-tax cash flow: $4,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $25,800–$46,440 screening

This single-family home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including painting, roof replacement, and landscaping improvements. These updates will significantly enhance its value and make it more attractive to buyers and renters.

Deferred maintenance Est. $20,000–$60,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — The roof appears to be damaged and missing shingles, indicating a major issue that needs immediate attention.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — The siding is visibly damaged and missing sections, indicating a major issue that needs immediate attention.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Significant weathering and damage.
• Major Roof — Aged and possibly leaking, with visible damage.
• Major Fencing — Old and in need of repair or replacement.
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt, detracting from curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Replace roof — A new roof will prevent further damage and improve the home's overall condition. ↑
• Both Repair or replace fencing — A new or repaired fence will enhance security and curb appeal. ↑
• Both Maintain landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's value and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary De Zavala El F TX #1,680/4,322 Nat'l #20,973/41,679 Middle Horace Mann J H F TX #1,015/1,662 Nat'l #8,646/14,009 High Impact Early College H S C TX #333/1,632 Nat'l #4,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Chambers County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $104,800 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $109,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2019-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,599 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.