22 Klaibar Ln

Commack, NY 11731

$719,000C-

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,100 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,771
• Tax + insurance: −$1,906
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,470
• Net cashflow: $-147/mo
• Annual: $-1,770/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $201,320

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $719k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $693k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $700k (2.7% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $693k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#319 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Commack Union Free School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #61 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Burr Intermediate School (math 51% / reading 71%, grade B, #736 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 681 students, 11% FRL); Commack Middle School (math 54% / reading 67%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,322 students, 16% FRL); Commack High School (math 98% / reading 97%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 1,861 students, 15% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $227k; list at $719k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Commack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.