22 Klaibar Ln · Commack, NY 11731

$719,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1963 0.42 ac lot Est $1060k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! Come make this 5 bedroom splanch home that’s ready to be customized to your liking.

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $719k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $693k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $700k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $693k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Commack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#319 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Commack Union Free School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #61 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Burr Intermediate School (math 51% / reading 71%, grade B, #736 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 681 students, 11% FRL); Commack Middle School (math 54% / reading 67%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,322 students, 16% FRL); Commack High School (math 98% / reading 97%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 1,861 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $227k; list at $719k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $692,950 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,060,200
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Karin Ct	0.13mi	5/2.5	3,000 (-3%)	10mo	$950,000	$317	80
23 Roderick Ct	0.10mi	5/3.5	3,000 (-3%)	7mo	$1,277,950	$426	80
56 Holly Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,938 (-5%)	8mo	$1,180,000	$402	71
4 Klaibar Ln	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,650 (-14%)	7mo	$960,000	$362	58
46 Cornflower Ln	0.69mi	5/2.5	3,147 (+2%)	12mo	$1,075,000	$342	55
62 Burton Ln	0.59mi	5/3.5	2,900 (-6%)	7mo	$1,287,000	$444	52
46 Harvest Ln	0.63mi	6/3.5 (+1)	3,286 (+6%)	1mo	$999,900	$304	51
11 Greenfield Ln	0.63mi	5/3.5	3,300 (+6%)	10mo	$1,118,000	$339	47
283 Town Line Rd	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,805 (-10%)	8mo	$845,000	$301	39
34 Ketay Dr N	0.59mi	6/4.5 (+1)	3,300 (+6%)	22mo	$1,400,000	$424	30
70 Hayrick Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,639 (-15%)	10mo	$814,000	$308	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-125,360
• Equity at exit: $107,205

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-119,059
• Equity at exit: $62,166

Cash invested: $201,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11731

• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,771
• Tax from tax record: −$1,607 /mo · $19,279/yr
• Insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,470
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,186

Max offer price $692,950

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $56	+0% $-147	+5% $-351	+10% $-554
Rent	-10% $-700	-5% $-424	+0% $-147	+5% $129	+10% $405
Rate	-1.0pp $215	-0.5pp $35	base $-147	+0.5pp $-334	+1.0pp $-523

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $179,750
• Closing costs: $21,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Farmstead Rd Commack, NY	5.0	4.0	3106	$6,999	$2.25	45d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-08
   listed $719,000 Active
3. 2026-03-02
   historical $719,000
4. 1994-01-03
   soldstatus $227,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $19,279 · $1,607/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,279 · $1,607/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $83,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,275
• − Property taxes: −$19,279
• − Insurance: −$3,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,719
• − Management: −$6,719
• − Depreciation: −$20,916
• Taxable loss: −$13,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,244
• After-tax cash flow: $1,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commack Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3608130
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $117,583
• Composite: 69.52/100
• National rank: #306
• State rank: #61 of 590 in NY

Livability — Commack

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #5296

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commack, NY
• City population: 58,941
• Population (ZIP): 29,891

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -580.05%
• Current HPI: 308.0634
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+216.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-08 Listed $719,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Coming Soon $719,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $227,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $19,279 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.