3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,040 sqft ·
Built 1968
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 146 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$850/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$68
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$178
Net cashflow
$237/mo
Annual
$2,844/yr
Cap rate
10.36%
Cash-on-cash
14.53%
DSCR
1.65
1% rule
1.22%
Cash to close
$19,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#201 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Morgan County (rural): math 19% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 129 in AL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Falkville Elementary School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #331 of 627 statewide, top 57%, 332 students, 68% FRL); Falkville High School (math 11% / reading 29%, grade F, #163 of 305 statewide, top 54%, 411 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 44% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 231 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Morgan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PGJTQXAVYPCMWY
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29