3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
635 sqft ·
Built 1941
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 102 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,340/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$471
Tax + insurance
−$150
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$281
Net cashflow
$437/mo
Annual
$5,249/yr
Cap rate
12.13%
Cash-on-cash
20.85%
DSCR
1.93
1% rule
1.49%
Cash to close
$25,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
Cleveland Hill Union Free School District (urban): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Cleveland Hill Elementary School (math 27% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,569 of 2,108 statewide, top 75%, 646 students, 63% FRL); Cleveland Hill Middle School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 298 students, 64% FRL); Cleveland Hill High School (math 87% / reading 75%, grade A, #485 of 1,100 statewide, top 45%, 385 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 43% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 461 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 185d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $45k; list at $90k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 4.0% in Cheektowaga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— Missing shingles
Major: exterior siding
— Weathered and damaged
Major: interior walls/paint
— No visible interior
Major: bathrooms
— No visible bathrooms
Major: kitchen
— No visible kitchen
Major: systems
— No visible systems
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· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29