15534 Zabolio Dr #130

Houston, TX 77598

$83,500D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 636 sqft · Built 1980 · Condo · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,009/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$438
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$347
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $-150/mo
• Annual: $-1,800/yr
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.70%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $23,380

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $84k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $57k (31.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $57k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($577 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clear Brook H S (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 2,347 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 25% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 207 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.