4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,190 sqft ·
Built 1923
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 179 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,182/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,521
Tax + insurance
−$236
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$458
Net cashflow
$-33/mo
Annual
$-394/yr
Cap rate
6.16%
Cash-on-cash
-0.48%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$81,200
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-394/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (2.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (24.8% below list).
It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $218k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#105 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
North Bend SD 13 (town): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #21 of 58 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Hillcrest Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #93 of 412 statewide, top 23%, 489 students, 68% FRL); North Bend Middle School (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #61 of 128 statewide, top 54%, 494 students, 68% FRL); North Bend Senior High School (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A-, #2 of 143 statewide, top 6%, 731 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 40% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the North Bend SD 13 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 122 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
Coos County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in North Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PGZZQQ7DC0VJ17
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29