1763 N Blaze Ln

Saratoga Springs, UT 84045

$449,900D-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,280 sqft · Built 2023 · Other · Under Contract · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,628/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$222
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-853/mo
• Annual: $-10,237/yr
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.13%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $125,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath other listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-853 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (33.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (41.6% below list).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (41.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#93 in UT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Alpine District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #25 of 80 in UT (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Ridge School (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D-, #226 of 585 statewide, top 40%, 1,191 students, 12% FRL); Westlake High (math 39% / reading 48%, grade F, #50 of 171 statewide, top 29%, 2,659 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1175 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,326 units permitted in Utah County in 2024 (1,053 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Utah County population projected at +49% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.