Forest Grove Rd Lot 20

Colonial Beach, VA 22443

$273,655D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 157 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,210/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,435
• Tax + insurance: −$456
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-145/mo
• Annual: $-1,740/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $76,623

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $274k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (19.2% below list).
• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#460 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Westmoreland County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 131 in VA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Washington District Elementary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #866 of 1,108 statewide, top 80%, 385 students, 100% FRL); Montross Middle (math 38% / reading 58%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 309 students, 101% FRL); Westmoreland High (math 32% / reading 82%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 486 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Colonial Beach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.