Forest Grove Rd Lot 20 · Colonial Beach, VA 22443

$273,655

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 10,018 sqft lot $261/sqft · 10% below area Est $306k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hamlet Homes providing affordable housing for over 30 years is offering this to be built Prescott Model in the Placid Bay Subd at a great price and it will not last long! We have the site plan in hand and when the contract is written, the builder will then go in for the building permit making it a quick turnaround of 4-5 months till completion. Just take a moment to look thru the pictures to see all that this home has to offer including the large front porch, rear deck, your choice of siding and shutter color. And then on the inside pick your paint color, flooring, which granite countertop slab you would like, pick your cabinet color. .. .and just look at all those cabinets!! The kitchen comes with stainless steel appliances, cabinets to the ceiling, LVP flooring, and a large pantry. Other great features include the large windows which set Hamlets builds apart from the others, concrete poured crawlspace (not cinderblock like the others) large bedrooms, large closets, lighting in EVERY room and you as the buyer pick all the selections. . plus much more! Pictures are of previous homes built and may include some upgrades.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Large front porch
• Large pantry

Tags

• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• REAR DECK
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CABINETS TO THE CEILING
• LARGE PANTRY
• LARGE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $274k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Colonial Beach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#460 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Westmoreland County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 131 in VA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Washington District Elementary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #866 of 1,108 statewide, top 80%, 385 students, 100% FRL); Montross Middle (math 38% / reading 58%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 309 students, 101% FRL); Westmoreland High (math 32% / reading 82%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 486 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,030 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,608
• List price: $273,655
• Delta: -10.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
69 Pinewood Ln	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,050 (0%)	7mo	$269,900	$257	78
69 Pinewood Ln Unit L18	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,050 (0%)	7mo	$269,900	$257	78
211 Forest Grove Rd	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,009 (-4%)	12mo	$269,900	$267	74
43 Dale Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0	962 (-8%)	5mo	$240,000	$249	72
227 Forest Grove Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+7%)	4mo	$297,000	$265	67
275 Forest Grove Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+7%)	9mo	$295,000	$263	60
218 Circle Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+3%)	1mo	$272,000	$252	57
303 Clearview Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+10%)	11mo	$296,000	$257	48
916 Lakeview Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	9mo	$296,600	$247	46
44 Deux Rue	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,165 (+11%)	10mo	$299,900	$257	45
380 Shorewood Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,132 (+8%)	9mo	$295,000	$261	37
369 Circle Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	912 (-13%)	7mo	$285,000	$313	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-53,548
• Equity at exit: $40,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-58,387
• Equity at exit: $23,661

Cash invested: $76,623 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22443

• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,210 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,435
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,105/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,394

Max offer price $252,669

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-50	+0% $-145	+5% $-240	+10% $-334
Rent	-10% $-320	-5% $-232	+0% $-145	+5% $-58	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-75	base $-145	+0.5pp $-216	+1.0pp $-288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,414
• Closing costs: $8,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Birch Ln Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,545	$1.96	16d	1	0.25mi
14 Azalea Way Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,250	$1.72	45d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $273,655 Pending 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,900 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $269,900 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $269,900 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $269,900 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $269,900 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-01-05
    listed $269,900 Active 1137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1137 chars)

    Hamlet Homes providing affordable housing for over 30 years is offering this to be built Prescott Model in the Placid Bay Subd at a great price and it will not last long! We have the site plan in hand and when the contract is written, the builder will then go in for the building permit making it a quick turnaround of 4-5 months till completion. Just take a moment to look thru the pictures to see all that this home has to offer including the large front porch, rear deck, your choice of siding and shutter color. And then on the inside pick your paint color, flooring, which granite countertop slab you would like, pick your cabinet color. .. .and just look at all those cabinets!! The kitchen comes with stainless steel appliances, cabinets to the ceiling, LVP flooring, and a large pantry. Other great features include the large windows which set Hamlets builds apart from the others, concrete poured crawlspace (not cinderblock like the others) large bedrooms, large closets, lighting in EVERY room and you as the buyer pick all the selections. . plus much more! Pictures are of previous homes built and may include some upgrades.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,329
• − Property taxes: −$4,105
• − Insurance: −$1,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − Depreciation: −$7,961
• Taxable loss: −$6,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,556
• After-tax cash flow: $-184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a great location. It's move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and could attract more buyers.
• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and increase its value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — High-quality flooring can make the bathrooms more appealing and increase the home's value.
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and could attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — High-quality flooring can make the bathrooms more appealing and increase the home's value. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westmoreland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103980
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -47.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,665
• Composite: 39.94/100
• National rank: #3845
• State rank: #105 of 131 in VA

Livability — Colonial Beach

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #19615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Westmoreland County · 10,011 people
• City population: 10,011
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 10,011
• Household income: $64,810
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 126.0

Population outlook (Westmoreland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,643 people
• By 2030: 17,520 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 17,041 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 16,397 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 15,012 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 12,917 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Westmoreland

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.3 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.23%
• Current HPI: 152.1518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Listed $269,900 BRIGHT MLS