130 W Harcourt Dr

Shields, MI 48609

$141,619C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,407/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$743
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $272/mo
• Annual: $3,269/yr
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.24%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $39,653

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (0.7% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $979 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in MI, #1,310 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Swan Valley School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #104 of 540 in MI (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 16 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.5% in Shields — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.