130 W Harcourt Dr · Shields, MI 48609

$141,619

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1955 0.30 ac lot $165/sqft · at area comps Est $145k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely remodeled ranch home - new vinyl windows, siding, soffit, furnace, hot water heater. Kitchen and bath remodeled as well, new LVP flooring and carpet. Fenced backyard and 1.5 car attached garage with opener. Book your showing today!

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Updated ranch home
• Remodeled in 2022

Tags

• UPDATED RANCH HOME
• REMODELED IN 2022
• VINYL WINDOWS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• CEMENT PATIO
• ATTACHED ONE-CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type is residential on approximately 0.3 acres; Zoning: Residential
• Financial info: No investor or income/expense details listed
• HOA & community: No HOA information listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (13 x 19) with space for 1 car; Additional parking for 2 vehicles
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Natural gas connected; Gas water heater; Internet (Spectrum)
• Home design: Single-story residential ranch-style home; Built in 1955; Crawlspace foundation; Entry via breezeway
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof not specified
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Patio; Porch; Subdivision setting; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen (approx. 11 x 12) with vinyl flooring; Range/oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not specified
• Bedrooms: First-floor primary bedroom (11 x 11) with carpet; First-floor second bedroom (10 x 10) with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in living room and bedrooms; Vinyl in kitchen, bathroom, and laundry
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor with vinyl flooring (approx. 8 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air (no cooling system listed)
• Interior features: Cable/internet available; Breezeway entry
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry/utility room (approx. 10 x 13) with vinyl flooring; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.5% in Shields — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in MI, #1,310 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Swan Valley School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #104 of 540 in MI (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $979 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,370 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.24%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,000
• List price: $141,619
• Delta: -2.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1137 N Miller Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	814 (-5%)	13mo	$110,000	$135	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,662
• Equity at exit: $21,116

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $17,149
• Equity at exit: $12,245

Cash invested: $39,653 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48609

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,407 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$743
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,062

Max offer price $141,619

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,405
• Closing costs: $4,249
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $141,619 Pending 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $141,619 Accepting Backup Offers 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $141,619 Accepting Backup Offers 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $141,619 Accepting Backup Offers 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $141,619 Accepting Backup Offers 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $141,619 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $141,619 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $141,619 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $141,619 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $141,619 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $141,619 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $141,619 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $141,619 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $141,619 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    status Active 660-char remark
16. 2026-05-04
    historical Accepting Backup Offers 660-char remark
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $145,777 Active 660-char remark
18. 2022-06-16
    soldstatus $118,000
19. 2022-06-06
    soldstatus $118,000 Sold 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Completely remodeled ranch home - new vinyl windows, siding, soffit, furnace, hot water heater. Kitchen and bath remodeled as well, new LVP flooring and carpet. Fenced backyard and 1.5 car attached garage with opener. Book your showing today!

20. 2022-06-06
    soldstatus $118,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Completely remodeled ranch home - new vinyl windows, siding, soffit, furnace, hot water heater. Kitchen and bath remodeled as well, new LVP flooring and carpet. Fenced backyard and 1.5 car attached garage with opener. Book your showing today!

21. 2022-05-08
    status Pending 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Completely remodeled ranch home - new vinyl windows, siding, soffit, furnace, hot water heater. Kitchen and bath remodeled as well, new LVP flooring and carpet. Fenced backyard and 1.5 car attached garage with opener. Book your showing today!

22. 2022-05-08
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Completely remodeled ranch home - new vinyl windows, siding, soffit, furnace, hot water heater. Kitchen and bath remodeled as well, new LVP flooring and carpet. Fenced backyard and 1.5 car attached garage with opener. Book your showing today!

23. 2022-05-05
    price $112,000

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Completely remodeled ranch home - new vinyl windows, siding, soffit, furnace, hot water heater. Kitchen and bath remodeled as well, new LVP flooring and carpet. Fenced backyard and 1.5 car attached garage with opener. Book your showing today!

24. 2022-05-05
    price $112,000 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Completely remodeled ranch home - new vinyl windows, siding, soffit, furnace, hot water heater. Kitchen and bath remodeled as well, new LVP flooring and carpet. Fenced backyard and 1.5 car attached garage with opener. Book your showing today!

25. 2022-04-26
    listed $119,900 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Completely remodeled ranch home - new vinyl windows, siding, soffit, furnace, hot water heater. Kitchen and bath remodeled as well, new LVP flooring and carpet. Fenced backyard and 1.5 car attached garage with opener. Book your showing today!

26. 2022-04-26
    listed $119,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Completely remodeled ranch home - new vinyl windows, siding, soffit, furnace, hot water heater. Kitchen and bath remodeled as well, new LVP flooring and carpet. Fenced backyard and 1.5 car attached garage with opener. Book your showing today!

27. 2011-03-23
    soldstatus $32,500
28. 2011-03-23
    soldstatus $32,500
29. 2011-02-18
    historical
30. 2010-11-30
    listed $36,000
31. 2010-11-30
    listed $36,000
32. 2010-11-30
    historical
33. 2010-11-30
    historical
34. 2009-07-31
    listed $52,000
35. 2009-07-31
    listed $52,000
36. 2007-11-09
    historical
37. 2007-11-09
    historical
38. 2007-05-09
    listed $94,900
39. 2007-05-09
    listed $94,900
40. 2007-04-01
    historical
41. 2007-04-01
    historical
42. 2007-01-04
    listed $95,000
43. 2007-01-04
    listed $95,000
44. 2006-12-31
    historical
45. 2006-12-31
    historical
46. 2006-10-02
    listed $96,000
47. 2006-10-02
    listed $96,000
48. 2006-10-01
    historical
49. 2006-10-01
    historical
50. 2006-04-01
    listed $96,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $448 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,315 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$866/yr (+$72/mo · 193.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,933
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$708
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,351
• − Management: −$1,351
• − Depreciation: −$4,120
• Taxable income: $973
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$233
• After-tax cash flow: $3,036/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Swan Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2633410
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,994
• Composite: 42.38/100
• National rank: #3241
• State rank: #104 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shields

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #1310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shields, MI
• Population (ZIP): 12,206

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.03%
• Current HPI: 179.2881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+46.1% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-10 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $141,619 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-08 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $145,777 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-06 Sold (MLS) $118,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-06-06 Sold (MLS) $118,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-05-08 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-05-08 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-05-05 Price Changed $112,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-05-05 Price Changed $112,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-04-26 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-26 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2011-03-23 Sold (MLS) $32,500 REALCOMP
• 2011-03-23 Sold (MLS) $32,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-02-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-11-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-11-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-11-30 Listed $36,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-11-30 Listed $36,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-07-31 Listed $52,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-07-31 Listed $52,000 REALCOMP
• 2007-11-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-11-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-05-09 Listed $94,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-05-09 Listed $94,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-04-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-04-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-01-04 Listed $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-01-04 Listed $95,000 REALCOMP
• 2006-12-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-12-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-10-02 Listed $96,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-10-02 Listed $96,000 REALCOMP
• 2006-10-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-10-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-04-01 Listed $96,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-04-01 Listed $96,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $448 · -81.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.