190 Birch Ave

Princeton, NJ 08542

$685,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1930 · Townhouse · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,716/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,592
• Tax + insurance: −$968
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$990
• Net cashflow: $-835/mo
• Annual: $-10,021/yr
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.22%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $191,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $685k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-835 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $537k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $472k (31.2% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $472k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $68k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#7 in NJ, #252 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Princeton Public Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 472 in NJ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Community Park School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C, #176 of 1,303 statewide, top 15%, 286 students, 15% FRL); Princeton Middle School (math 47% / reading 75%, grade B+, #37 of 431 statewide, top 9%, 816 students, 14% FRL); Princeton High School (math 45% / reading 76%, grade C+, #54 of 399 statewide, top 14%, 1,532 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$109k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 0.7% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,716/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($106k/yr) (locally 181% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.