190 Birch Ave · Princeton, NJ 08542

$685,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Townhouse public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1930 Est $933k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Set in Princeton’s historic Witherspoon-Jackson neighborhood, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath twin offers the perfect blend of classic character, thoughtful updates, and exceptional walkability—just moments from Palmer Square, Princeton University, and the shops, dining, and culture that define downtown Princeton. A welcoming front yard and charming entry set the tone, while inside, newly refinished hardwood floors and a freshly painted interior create a bright, move-in ready feel throughout. Vintage details add warmth and personality, complementing the home’s classic appeal. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers ample cabinetry and prep space, flowing naturally into the main living a

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Built 1930
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total finished above-grade area reported as 1,440 (source: Assessor)
• Financial info: No investor or rental income details provided
• HOA & community: Condo fee frequency: Unknown; Pets allowed with no restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (3 spaces total)
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water
• Home design: Semi-detached condominium; Two-plus access exits
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Level lot with a rear yard

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Ceramic tile flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard hot water heating; Wall cooling unit (electric)
• Interior features: Hardwood and ceramic tile flooring; Has one non-functioning fireplace; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliance details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $685k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-835 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $537k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $472k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $472k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 0.7% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#7 in NJ, #252 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Princeton Public Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 472 in NJ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Community Park School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C, #176 of 1,303 statewide, top 15%, 286 students, 15% FRL); Princeton Middle School (math 47% / reading 75%, grade B+, #37 of 431 statewide, top 9%, 816 students, 14% FRL); Princeton High School (math 45% / reading 76%, grade C+, #54 of 399 statewide, top 14%, 1,532 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,716/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($106k/yr) (locally 181% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $68k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$109k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $471,589 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.22%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $933,120
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
190 Birch Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$730,000	$507	100
210 Birch Ave	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,236 (-14%)	11mo	$680,000	$550	66
8 Greenholm St #3	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,490 (+4%)	7mo	$965,000	$648	59
135 Jefferson Rd	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,440 (0%)	21mo	$825,000	$573	56
63 Jefferson Rd	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,512 (+5%)	12mo	$999,999	$661	55
131 Victoria Mews	0.41mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,623 (+13%)	0mo	$1,499,000	$924	49
33 Jefferson Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+12%)	1mo	$1,100,000	$681	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $285,105
• Equity at exit: $580,144

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $873,624
• Equity at exit: $1,213,755

Cash invested: $191,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08542

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,716 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,592
• Tax from tax record: −$683 /mo · $8,196/yr
• Insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$990
• Net cashflow: $-835

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,773

Max offer price $537,476

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-447	-5% $-641	+0% $-835	+5% $-1,029	+10% $-1,223
Rent	-10% $-1,208	-5% $-1,021	+0% $-835	+5% $-649	+10% $-463
Rate	-1.0pp $-490	-0.5pp $-661	base $-835	+0.5pp $-1,013	+1.0pp $-1,193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $171,250
• Closing costs: $20,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
68 Mountain Ave Princeton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1700	$4,800	$2.82	15d	1	0.20mi
22 Lytle St #1 Princeton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	23d	1	0.26mi
100 Albert Way Princeton, NJ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1331	$5,470	$4.11	15d	1	0.34mi
195 Nassau St Princeton, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$10,650	$10.25	15d	27	0.79mi
203-205 Nassau St Unit 3 Princeton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1000	$4,000	$4.00	23d	1	0.82mi
275 N Harrison St Princeton, NJ	3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$4,380	$4.34	15d	1	0.98mi
365 Terhune Rd Princeton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$6,475	$6.20	15d	17	1.11mi
100 Thanet Cir Princeton, NJ	3.0	1.0–2.5	1245	$5,945	$4.77	15d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $685,000 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-04-30
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-17
   listed $685,000 Active
4. 2026-04-10
   historical $685,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,196 · $683/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,626 · $1,052/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,430/yr (+$369/mo · 54.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,371
• − Property taxes: −$8,196
• − Insurance: −$3,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,527
• − Management: −$4,527
• − Depreciation: −$19,927
• Taxable loss: −$22,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,372
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3413410
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $112,202
• Composite: 57.34/100
• National rank: #1083
• State rank: #49 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #252

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 52,921
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 2,533
• Household income: $105,524
• Rent vs Own: 67.7% rent · 32.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 17% Asian 12% Two or more races 12% Black 11% Native American 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.25%
• Current HPI: 359.7223
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $685,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Coming Soon $685,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,196 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.