1380 Dartmouth St

Baldwin, NY 11510

$579,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,775/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,036
• Tax + insurance: −$1,367
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,003
• Net cashflow: $-631/mo
• Annual: $-7,570/yr
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $162,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $579k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-631 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $468k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $478k (17.5% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($562k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $468k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#38 in NY, #580 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Rockville Centre Union Free School District (suburban): math 82% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #37 of 590 in NY (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Side Middle School (math 56% / reading 75%, grade A-, #119 of 729 statewide, top 16%, 837 students, 14% FRL); South Side High School (math 98% / reading 75%, grade A, #336 of 1,100 statewide, top 31%, 999 students, 16% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $579k implies a 1932% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.7% in Baldwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.