3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,439 sqft ·
Built 1960
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 78 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,350/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$502
Tax + insurance
−$106
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$284
Net cashflow
$459/mo
Annual
$5,504/yr
Cap rate
12.05%
Cash-on-cash
20.55%
DSCR
1.91
1% rule
1.41%
Cash to close
$26,785
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $28k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $26k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $662 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#687 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
Monahans-Wickett-Pyote ISD (town): math 33% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Ward County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ward County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PHKXRHA1GGK2ZF
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29