1204 Middle Rd

Oswego, NY 13126

$144,500B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,342 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,813/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$758
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $460/mo
• Annual: $5,519/yr
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.64%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $40,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $144k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $999 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $144k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.