1204 Middle Rd · Oswego, NY 13126

$144,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,342 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1910 0.33 ac lot Est $180k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming old style home in the country setting of Scriba! This 3 bed 1 bath home offers convenient first floor living with a bedroom, full bath and laundry on the main level. Features include an eat-in kitchen, with breakfast bar, living room, formal dining room or family room, depending on your needs. Upstairs offers additional bedrooms, and a office/flex room. Enjoy the enclosed front porch, back deck, and large side yard. New carpet and vinyl flooring throughout as well as fresh paint; this home is move-in ready and waiting for your final touches!

Key facts

• Office flex room
• First floor living
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LIVING
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• LARGE SIDE YARD
• OFFICE FLEX ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $999 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $144k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $144,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.64%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,828
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
90 County Route 63	0.35mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,408 (+5%)	8mo	$188,000	$134	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $20,035
• Equity at exit: $26,400

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $102,843
• Equity at exit: $20,995

Cash invested: $40,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$758
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,855/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,231

Max offer price $144,500

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,125
• Closing costs: $4,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
95 Downey Dr Oswego, NY	2.0	1.0	1227	$1,700	$1.39	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $144,500 Active
3. 2018-10-30
   historical
4. 2018-10-17
   price $75,000
5. 2018-09-28
   price $83,000
6. 2018-09-16
   price $85,500
7. 2018-09-06
   price $89,900
8. 2018-08-28
   listed $93,900 Active
9. 2014-08-27
   listed $27,250
10. 2001-11-02
    soldstatus $62,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,855 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,148 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$294/yr (+$24/mo · 15.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,094
• − Property taxes: −$1,855
• − Insurance: −$722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − Depreciation: −$4,204
• Taxable income: $3,402
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$817
• After-tax cash flow: $4,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oswego City School District
• NCES district ID: 3622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,835
• Composite: 38.2/100
• National rank: #4257
• State rank: #465 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oswego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4189

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+129.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $144,500 CNYIS
• 2018-10-30 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2018-10-17 Price Changed $75,000 CNYIS
• 2018-09-28 Price Changed $83,000 CNYIS
• 2018-09-16 Price Changed $85,500 CNYIS
• 2018-09-06 Price Changed $89,900 CNYIS
• 2018-08-28 Listed $93,900 CNYIS
• 2014-08-27 Listed $27,250 CNYIS
• 2001-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $62,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,855 · +22.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.