4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,522 sqft ·
Built 1940
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 19 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,451/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,232
Tax + insurance
−$602
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$515
Net cashflow
$102/mo
Annual
$1,228/yr
Cap rate
6.82%
Cash-on-cash
1.87%
DSCR
1.08
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$65,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $235k).
It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $231k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#71 in TX, #2,592 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: commute F.
Waxahachie ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #253 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Marvin Biomedical Academy (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 456 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Waxahachie ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 854 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
14 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $30k; list at $235k implies a 683% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.3% in Waxahachie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PHXBA41TYQSRSC
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29