2487 Cifax Rd

Forest, VA 24556

$394,000D-

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,904 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,007/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,066
• Tax + insurance: −$273
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-753/mo
• Annual: $-9,039/yr
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.19%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $110,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $394k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-753 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (33.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (49.1% below list).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($347k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (49.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#114 in VA, #3,521 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $394k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.9% in Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.