2487 Cifax Rd · Forest, VA 24556

$394,000

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 2007 1.06 ac lot $207/sqft · 8% above area Est $400k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Bedroom Home! Amazing Mountain Views! Privacy and Convenience! Located 10 minutes from Forest schools and shopping center! Beautiful Hardwood flooring and Custom Kitchen Cabinets made from trees cut from property! Gorgeous Kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and newer backsplash, and plenty of counterspace. Butler Pantry and Formal Dining Room. Main Level Bedroom perfect for guests or an office. Second level feature Huge Primary Suite with Vaulted Ceilings, Walk-in Closet and Luxury Shower. Large Additional Bedrooms plus a Private Balcony to enjoy the Mountain Views! Terrace Level Family Rm, Craft, Office, or Exercise Room. .. You Name It! Backyard Patio Perfect for Summer BBQs! You Love this Warm and Inviting Home!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Chestnut flooring
• Granite countertops

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• CHESTNUT FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BUTLER PANTRY
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $394k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-753 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (33.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (49.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (49.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.9% in Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#114 in VA, #3,521 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($347k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $394k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,705 (49.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.19%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,000
• List price: $394,000
• Delta: -1.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2487 Cifax Rd	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,080 (+9%)	1mo	$400,000	$192	76
2860 Cifax Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5	2,037 (+7%)	19mo	$379,900	$186	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $166,400
• Equity at exit: $354,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $527,340
• Equity at exit: $765,455

Cash invested: $110,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24556

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,066
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,302/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-753

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,961

Max offer price $260,928

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,500
• Closing costs: $11,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   4 Bedroom Home! Amazing Mountain Views! Privacy and Convenience! Located 10 minutes from Forest schools and shopping center! Beautiful Hardwood flooring and Custom Kitchen Cabinets made from trees cut from property! Gorgeous Kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and newer backsplash, and plenty of counterspace. Butler Pantry and Formal Dining Room. Main Level Bedroom perfect for guests or an office. Second level feature Huge Primary Suite with Vaulted Ceilings, Walk-in Closet and Luxury Shower. Large Additional Bedrooms plus a Private Balcony to enjoy the Mountain Views! Terrace Level Family Rm, Craft, Office, or Exercise Room. .. You Name It! Backyard Patio Perfect for Summer BBQs! You Love this Warm and Inviting Home!

2. 2026-04-27
   status Active 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   4 Bedroom Home! Amazing Mountain Views! Privacy and Convenience! Located 10 minutes from Forest schools and shopping center! Beautiful Hardwood flooring and Custom Kitchen Cabinets made from trees cut from property! Gorgeous Kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and newer backsplash, and plenty of counterspace. Butler Pantry and Formal Dining Room. Main Level Bedroom perfect for guests or an office. Second level feature Huge Primary Suite with Vaulted Ceilings, Walk-in Closet and Luxury Shower. Large Additional Bedrooms plus a Private Balcony to enjoy the Mountain Views! Terrace Level Family Rm, Craft, Office, or Exercise Room. .. You Name It! Backyard Patio Perfect for Summer BBQs! You Love this Warm and Inviting Home!

3. 2026-04-27
   price $394,000 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   4 Bedroom Home! Amazing Mountain Views! Privacy and Convenience! Located 10 minutes from Forest schools and shopping center! Beautiful Hardwood flooring and Custom Kitchen Cabinets made from trees cut from property! Gorgeous Kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and newer backsplash, and plenty of counterspace. Butler Pantry and Formal Dining Room. Main Level Bedroom perfect for guests or an office. Second level feature Huge Primary Suite with Vaulted Ceilings, Walk-in Closet and Luxury Shower. Large Additional Bedrooms plus a Private Balcony to enjoy the Mountain Views! Terrace Level Family Rm, Craft, Office, or Exercise Room. .. You Name It! Backyard Patio Perfect for Summer BBQs! You Love this Warm and Inviting Home!

4. 2026-03-23
   price $399,900 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   4 Bedroom Home! Amazing Mountain Views! Privacy and Convenience! Located 10 minutes from Forest schools and shopping center! Beautiful Hardwood flooring and Custom Kitchen Cabinets made from trees cut from property! Gorgeous Kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and newer backsplash, and plenty of counterspace. Butler Pantry and Formal Dining Room. Main Level Bedroom perfect for guests or an office. Second level feature Huge Primary Suite with Vaulted Ceilings, Walk-in Closet and Luxury Shower. Large Additional Bedrooms plus a Private Balcony to enjoy the Mountain Views! Terrace Level Family Rm, Craft, Office, or Exercise Room. .. You Name It! Backyard Patio Perfect for Summer BBQs! You Love this Warm and Inviting Home!

5. 2026-02-11
   price $419,900 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   4 Bedroom Home! Amazing Mountain Views! Privacy and Convenience! Located 10 minutes from Forest schools and shopping center! Beautiful Hardwood flooring and Custom Kitchen Cabinets made from trees cut from property! Gorgeous Kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and newer backsplash, and plenty of counterspace. Butler Pantry and Formal Dining Room. Main Level Bedroom perfect for guests or an office. Second level feature Huge Primary Suite with Vaulted Ceilings, Walk-in Closet and Luxury Shower. Large Additional Bedrooms plus a Private Balcony to enjoy the Mountain Views! Terrace Level Family Rm, Craft, Office, or Exercise Room. .. You Name It! Backyard Patio Perfect for Summer BBQs! You Love this Warm and Inviting Home!

6. 2025-12-13
   listed $428,000 Active 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   4 Bedroom Home! Amazing Mountain Views! Privacy and Convenience! Located 10 minutes from Forest schools and shopping center! Beautiful Hardwood flooring and Custom Kitchen Cabinets made from trees cut from property! Gorgeous Kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and newer backsplash, and plenty of counterspace. Butler Pantry and Formal Dining Room. Main Level Bedroom perfect for guests or an office. Second level feature Huge Primary Suite with Vaulted Ceilings, Walk-in Closet and Luxury Shower. Large Additional Bedrooms plus a Private Balcony to enjoy the Mountain Views! Terrace Level Family Rm, Craft, Office, or Exercise Room. .. You Name It! Backyard Patio Perfect for Summer BBQs! You Love this Warm and Inviting Home!

7. 2016-08-17
   historical
8. 2016-05-27
   soldstatus $240,000
9. 2016-02-18
   listed $249,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,302 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,231 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,929/yr (+$161/mo · 148.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,085
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,070
• − Property taxes: −$1,302
• − Insurance: −$1,970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,927
• − Management: −$1,927
• − Depreciation: −$11,462
• Taxable loss: −$16,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,978
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100360
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $56,288
• Composite: 54.92/100
• National rank: #1310
• State rank: #41 of 131 in VA

Livability — Forest

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #114
• US rank: #3521

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 28,554
• Population (ZIP): 2,695

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,194 people
• By 2030: 85,499 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 88,834 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 90,060 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 94,131 · +13.1%
• By 2100: 89,832 · +8.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Asian 3% Native American 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.4) · D 24.4% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -50.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.28%
• Current HPI: 326.0488
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+58.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — LMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $394,000 LMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $399,900 LMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $419,900 LMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $428,000 LMLS
• 2016-08-17 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2016-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-18 Listed $249,000 MLSRV

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,302 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.