18 Woodland Rd

Flower Hill, NY 11576

$1,850,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,948 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,181/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,702
• Tax + insurance: −$2,631
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,558
• Net cashflow: $-2,710/mo
• Annual: $-32,520/yr
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $518,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.85M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.37M (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.22M (34.2% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $1.22M (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $151k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $138k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#212 in NY, #3,270 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Roslyn Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #28 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harbor Hill School (math 83% / reading 82%, grade A+, #133 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 584 students, 10% FRL); Roslyn Middle School (math 78% / reading 82%, grade A+, #28 of 729 statewide, top 4%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Roslyn High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,035 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $1.15M; list at $1.85M implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$242k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.