18 Woodland Rd · Flower Hill, NY 11576

$1,850,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,948 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1968 0.34 ac lot Est $1972k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Schools +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Center hall colonial with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths measuring 3000 square feet with finished basement situated on . 34 acres of landscaped property located in Flower Hill Roslyn. Natural hardwood floors throughout with skylights and replacement windows. Kitchen with granite countertops and updated appliances. 2 car garage. Roslyn schools and Port Washington train sticker.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Landscaped property
• Finished basement

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• LANDSCAPED PROPERTY
• SKYLIGHTS
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.85M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.37M (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.22M (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.22M (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#212 in NY, #3,270 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Roslyn Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #28 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harbor Hill School (math 83% / reading 82%, grade A+, #133 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 584 students, 10% FRL); Roslyn Middle School (math 78% / reading 82%, grade A+, #28 of 729 statewide, top 4%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Roslyn High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,035 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $151k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $138k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$242k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $1.15M; list at $1.85M implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,218,106 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,972,212
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44 Fernwood Ln	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,800 (-5%)	11mo	$1,630,000	$582	68
32 Barnard Pl	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,986 (+1%)	3mo	$2,888,000	$967	64
109 Country Club Dr	0.40mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,756 (-6%)	0mo	$2,770,000	$1,005	61
100 The Intervale	0.52mi	4/3.5	3,000 (+2%)	12mo	$1,700,000	$567	59
18 Bayberry Rdg	0.26mi	4/3.5	2,660 (-10%)	12mo	$1,420,000	$534	58
14 Ridge Dr E	0.35mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,679 (-9%)	8mo	$1,450,000	$541	55
83 Fernwood Ln	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,631 (-11%)	9mo	$1,430,000	$544	55
16 Ridge Dr E	0.35mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,543 (-14%)	3mo	$1,245,000	$490	51
448 Abbey Rd N	0.75mi	4/3.5	2,763 (-6%)	2mo	$2,228,000	$806	49
812 Hunt Ln	0.68mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,934 (-0%)	11mo	$2,950,000	$1,005	49
45 Pool Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,756 (-6%)	9mo	$1,845,000	$669	49
38 Country Club Dr	0.69mi	4/4.5	3,276 (+11%)	6mo	$2,950,000	$900	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $528,821
• Equity at exit: $1,341,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $1,662,170
• Equity at exit: $2,602,744

Cash invested: $518,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11576

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,702
• Tax from tax record: −$1,861 /mo · $22,327/yr
• Insurance: −$771
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,558
• Net cashflow: $-2,710

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,611

Max offer price $1,371,271

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,663	-5% $-2,186	+0% $-2,710	+5% $-3,234	+10% $-3,757
Rent	-10% $-3,672	-5% $-3,191	+0% $-2,710	+5% $-2,229	+10% $-1,748
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,778	-0.5pp $-2,239	base $-2,710	+0.5pp $-3,189	+1.0pp $-3,677

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $462,500
• Closing costs: $55,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
902 Mill Crk S #902 Roslyn, NY	3.0	3.5	3172	$12,000	$3.78	24d	1	0.75mi
67 Short Way Roslyn Heights, NY	3.0	3.5	3706	$12,800	$3.45	24d	1	1.45mi
106 Thayer Rd Manhasset, NY	5.0	3.0	2793	$12,000	$4.30	0d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $1,850,000 Active
3. 2004-12-22
   soldstatus $1,150,000
4. 2002-08-30
   soldstatus $872,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $22,327 · $1,861/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $26,796 · $2,233/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,469/yr (+$372/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $146,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$103,629
• − Property taxes: −$22,327
• − Insurance: −$9,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,694
• − Management: −$11,694
• − Depreciation: −$53,818
• Taxable loss: −$66,239
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15,897
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roslyn Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625050
• Math proficiency: 83% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $128,640
• Composite: 77.26/100
• National rank: #101
• State rank: #28 of 590 in NY

Livability — Flower Hill

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #3270

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flower Hill, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,796

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 19% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Other Indo-European 11% Korean 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.48%
• Current HPI: 305.952
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+112.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $1,850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $1,150,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $872,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $22,327 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.