10-12 S 16th Ave Ave E

Duluth, MN 55812

$389,900C+

11 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,590 sqft · Built 1891 · MultiFamily · Pending · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$650
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$902
• Net cashflow: $700/mo
• Annual: $8,401/yr
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.70%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $109,172

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $390k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $350/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $390k).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $355k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Congdon Elementary (math 71% / reading 76%, grade A, #41 of 857 statewide, top 5%, 452 students, 20% FRL); Ordean East Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #53 of 258 statewide, top 22%, 989 students, 26% FRL); East High School (math 42% / reading 73%, grade C, #59 of 471 statewide, top 13%, 1,494 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 39% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1891 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,297/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1891 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.