Belmont (Whispering Oaks) Plan

Brooks, KY 40229

$75,995D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,303/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$560
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-56/mo
• Annual: $-671/yr
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $21,279

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-671/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $68k (10.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#277 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brooks Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 460 students, 77% FRL); Hebron Middle School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #68 of 217 statewide, top 32%, 536 students, 52% FRL); North Bullitt High School (math 30% / reading 28%, grade F, #150 of 254 statewide, top 59%, 1,148 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 41% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.