Belmont (Whispering Oaks) Plan · Brooks, KY 40229

$75,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · Manufactured · 126 Days on market

Good condition $560/mo HOA · 43% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Belmont offers a smart, spacious layout designed for comfortable everyday living. This thoughtfully designed home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, providing plenty of room for family and guests. At the heart of the home, you'll find a beautiful, well-appointed kitchen that flows seamlessly into an expansive living area with extended length-perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating flexible spaces to fit your lifestyle. With its open design and generous proportions, the Belmont delivers both functionality and style in a home that truly feels inviting.

Key facts

• Listed 125 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing price $75,995
• HOA & community: Association fee of 560

Exterior

• Home design: Belmont plan; Located in Louisville, KY (40229)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1193

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home in Whispering Oaks community

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-671/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $68k (10.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#277 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brooks Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 460 students, 77% FRL); Hebron Middle School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #68 of 217 statewide, top 32%, 536 students, 52% FRL); North Bullitt High School (math 30% / reading 28%, grade F, #150 of 254 statewide, top 59%, 1,148 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 41% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,875 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-12,206
• Equity at exit: $11,331

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $524
• Equity at exit: $6,571

Cash invested: $21,279 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40229

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,303 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$95 /mo · $1,140/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$560
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $67,907

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3	-5% $-30	+0% $-56	+5% $-82	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-159	-5% $-107	+0% $-56	+5% $-4	+10% $47
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-37	base $-56	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,999
• Closing costs: $2,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
184 Cannon Ct Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	975	$1,000	$1.03	12d	1	0.46mi
3600 Hillcross Dr Unit 6 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	13d	1	0.87mi
3600 Hillcross Dr Unit 5 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	25d	1	0.87mi
3700 Hillcross Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	832	$1,599	$1.92	18d	1	0.91mi
4109 Blue Lick Ct Unit 7 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	4d	1	0.92mi
4105 Blue Lick Ct Unit 4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	25d	1	0.95mi
4101 Blue Lick Ct Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	25d	1	0.97mi
4103 Blue Lick Ct Unit 7 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$899	$1.12	25d	1	0.98mi
11707 Autumn Forest Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	3d	1	1.05mi
365 Prairie Dr Unit 5 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	975	$1,250	$1.28	25d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $560 · $6,720/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,995 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,995 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,995 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,995 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,995 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,995 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,995 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,995 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,995 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,995 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,995 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,995 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,995 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,995 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,257
• − Property taxes: −$1,140
• − Insurance: −$380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,251
• − Management: −$1,251
• − HOA: −$6,720
• − Depreciation: −$2,211
• Taxable loss: −$1,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$378
• After-tax cash flow: $-293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Belmont is a well-maintained and updated manufactured home with good condition across all systems and areas. Minor cosmetic updates, such as painting the exterior siding and cleaning gutters, can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, enhancing property value and reducing maintenance costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, enhancing property value and reducing maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullitt County
• NCES district ID: 2100750
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,009
• Composite: 30.78/100
• National rank: #6151
• State rank: #55 of 165 in KY

Livability — Brooks

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #277
• US rank: #13521

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brooks, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 41,299
• Household income: $79,936
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 628.0

Population outlook (Bullitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,555 people
• By 2030: 94,389 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 102,759 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 108,955 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 121,898 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 126,383 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bullitt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.8% · R 74.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.38%
• Current HPI: 244.2747
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.46%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B