415 Plum Branch Rd

Concord, VA 24504

$134,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,634/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $359/mo
• Annual: $4,307/yr
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.40%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#335 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Concord Elementary (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 432 students, 74% FRL); Rustburg Middle (math 49% / reading 65%, grade B, #178 of 342 statewide, top 53%, 606 students, 74% FRL); Rustburg High (math 77% / reading 67%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 828 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 37% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $135k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.0% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.