415 Plum Branch Rd · Concord, VA 24504

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · SingleFamily · 70 Days on market

Built 2019 2.58 ac lot $121/sqft · 30% below area Est $192k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! Where else are you going to find a 7-year-old home on over 2.5 acres for under $140,000? This second-row home sits well off Plum Branch Road, offering added privacy and minimal road noise- so you can enjoy a quieter, more peaceful setting without the distraction of passing traffic.

Key facts

• 2.58 acre lot
• Built 2019
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.0% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#335 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Concord Elementary (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 432 students, 74% FRL); Rustburg Middle (math 49% / reading 65%, grade B, #178 of 342 statewide, top 53%, 606 students, 74% FRL); Rustburg High (math 77% / reading 67%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 828 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 37% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $135k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $126,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.40%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,457
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: -29.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
191 Peach Tree Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+0%)	19mo	$140,000	$125	74
446 Plum Branch Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-8%)	10mo	$230,000	$223	67
595 Plum Branch Rd	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,064 (-5%)	21mo	$99,500	$94	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,630
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $43,732
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24504

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,634 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $452	-5% $406	+0% $359	+5% $312	+10% $266
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $294	+0% $359	+5% $423	+10% $488
Rate	-1.0pp $427	-0.5pp $393	base $359	+0.5pp $324	+1.0pp $288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6138 Village Hwy Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1352	$2,045	$1.51	15d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $134,900 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $134,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $134,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $134,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $134,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-04-26
    price $134,900 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Wow! Where else are you going to find a 7-year-old home on over 2.5 acres for under $140,000? This second-row home sits well off Plum Branch Road, offering added privacy and minimal road noise- so you can enjoy a quieter, more peaceful setting without the distraction of passing traffic.

12. 2026-03-30
    listed $139,900 Active 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Wow! Where else are you going to find a 7-year-old home on over 2.5 acres for under $140,000? This second-row home sits well off Plum Branch Road, offering added privacy and minimal road noise- so you can enjoy a quieter, more peaceful setting without the distraction of passing traffic.

13. 2005-11-10
    soldstatus $56,000
14. 2004-09-24
    soldstatus $59,655
15. 1994-01-21
    soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $2,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$551
• After-tax cash flow: $3,756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,915
• Composite: 51.88/100
• National rank: #1656
• State rank: #55 of 131 in VA

Livability — Concord

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #335
• US rank: #12864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 9,632
• Household income: $52,571
• Rent vs Own: 46.4% rent · 53.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 552.0

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,306 people
• By 2030: 56,366 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 55,406 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 53,011 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 45,932 · -18.4%
• By 2100: 36,029 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 40% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 25.3% · R 73.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.39%
• Current HPI: 229.4423
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+770.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $134,900 LMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $139,900 LMLS
• 2005-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $59,655 Public Records
• 1994-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $159 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.