2025 Genevieve Trl

Newport News, VA 23185

$260,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,540 sqft · Built 2014 · Townhouse · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,108/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$105
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-80/mo
• Annual: $-963/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-963/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (18.9% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $211k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in James City County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• James City County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 13584% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.