148 Arthur Ln

McQueeney, TX 78123

$118,750B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · Built 1985 · Other · Pending · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,709/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$623
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $610/mo
• Annual: $7,318/yr
• Cap rate: 12.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.01%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $33,250

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $610 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $502 of equity ($822 loan paydown + $-320 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#559 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13094% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 1.8% in McQueeney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.