148 Arthur Ln · McQueeney, TX 78123

$118,750

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · Other · 82 Days on market

Built 1985 0.39 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Totally remodeled manufactured home on a large corner lot. 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with approximately 1055 square feet. The roof and HVAC were replaced in 2022. Plumbing lines were replaced with PEX in 2023. Quiet McQueeney area. Owner is a Licensed Real Estate Agent. Actual square footage is not reflected on county appraisal.

Key facts

• Hvac replaced
• Large corner lot
• Quiet mcqueeney area

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• ROOF REPLACED
• HVAC REPLACED
• PLUMBING LINES REPLACED
• QUIET MCQUEENEY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $610 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 1.2% in McQueeney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#559 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $502 of equity ($822 loan paydown + $-320 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13094% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,625 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.01%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $33,850
• Equity at exit: $32,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $93,306
• Equity at exit: $38,290

Cash invested: $33,250 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78123

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$623
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $937

Max offer price $118,750

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $677	-5% $643	+0% $610	+5% $576	+10% $543
Rent	-10% $475	-5% $542	+0% $610	+5% $677	+10% $745
Rate	-1.0pp $670	-0.5pp $640	base $610	+0.5pp $579	+1.0pp $548

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,688
• Closing costs: $3,562
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
551 Terminal Loop Rd Unit D5 Mc Queeney, TX	2.0	2.0	905	$1,895	$2.09	2d	1	0.70mi
3824 High Tide Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,545	$1.05	2d	1	0.97mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,549	$1.05	2d	1	1.03mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,781	$1.21	2d	1	1.16mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,625	$1.09	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2025-12-01
   historical $900
2. 2025-11-07
   listed $900
3. 2025-11-04
   status Pending
4. 2025-11-03
   historical $900
5. 2025-10-23
   listed $900
6. 2025-10-09
   price $118,750
7. 2025-09-29
   price $128,750
8. 2025-08-24
   price $137,900
9. 2025-08-13
   listed $148,900 Active
10. 2000-01-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,355/yr (+$113/mo · 165.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,652
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$594
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − Depreciation: −$3,455
• Taxable income: $5,710
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,370
• After-tax cash flow: $5,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — McQueeney

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #559
• US rank: #10747

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McQueeney, TX
• City population: 2,271
• Population (ZIP): 2,271

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 22% Asian 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.27%
• Current HPI: 179.3354
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Rental Removed $900 CTXMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed for Rent $900 CTXMLS
• 2025-11-04 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2025-11-03 Rental Removed $900 SABOR
• 2025-10-23 Listed for Rent $900 SABOR
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $118,750 CTXMLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $128,750 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-24 Price Changed $137,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $148,900 CTXMLS
• 2000-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $818 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.