10227 Oak Ave

Brandon, FL 33619

$130,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,931/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$526
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $318/mo
• Annual: $3,819/yr
• Cap rate: 13.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.55%
• DSCR: 2.09
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kenly Elementary School (math 35% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 431 students, 90% FRL); Mclane Middle School (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 817 students, 74% FRL); Armwood High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 2,400 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 52% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $130k implies a 420% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 3→7/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.