490 Joal Dr

Carrington, ND 58421

$175,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,004 sqft · Built 1977 · Other · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,233/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-163/mo
• Annual: $-1,960/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (29.6% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#45 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carrington 49 (rural): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #4 of 53 in ND (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Carrington Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #54 of 236 statewide, top 26%, 358 students, 18% FRL); Carrington High School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #6 of 144 statewide, top 4%, 255 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Foster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Foster County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.