490 Joal Dr · Carrington, ND 58421

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,004 sqft · Other · 91 Days on market

Built 1977 7,625 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Key facts

• Newer shingles
• Large backyard
• Welcoming deck

Tags

• MULTI-LEVEL TWIN HOME
• INSULATED SINGLE GARAGE
• NEWER SHINGLES
• WELCOMING DECK
• LARGE BACKYARD
• VARIETY OF AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Multi/split levels
• Construction: Masonite exterior; Built with asphalt roofing
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Asphalt roof; Public-maintained asphalt road frontage on a city street (61 x 125 lot dimensions)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Partially finished basement with exterior entry; Storage shed(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#45 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carrington 49 (rural): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #4 of 53 in ND (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Carrington Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #54 of 236 statewide, top 26%, 358 students, 18% FRL); Carrington High School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #6 of 144 statewide, top 4%, 255 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Foster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Foster County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $123,277 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $49,458
• Equity at exit: $119,972

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $151,622
• Equity at exit: $226,727

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58421

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,759/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,440

Max offer price $146,140

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-114	+0% $-163	+5% $-213	+10% $-262
Rent	-10% $-261	-5% $-212	+0% $-163	+5% $-115	+10% $-66
Rate	-1.0pp $-75	-0.5pp $-119	base $-163	+0.5pp $-209	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $175,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 70 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 69 DOM
18. 2026-03-23
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,759 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,759 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,759
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$5,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,224
• After-tax cash flow: $-736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrington 49
• NCES district ID: 3800053
• Math proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,555
• Composite: 49.68/100
• National rank: #1970
• State rank: #4 of 53 in ND

Livability — Carrington

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #5879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrington, ND
• Population (ZIP): 3,043

Population outlook (Foster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,329 people
• By 2030: 3,369 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 3,467 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 3,527 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 4,113 · +23.6%
• By 2100: 4,472 · +34.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 26% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Foster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.6) · D 19.8% · R 78.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -58.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.6 2020: R+55.6 2016: R+52.5 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.89%
• Current HPI: 131.1089
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $175,000 GNMLS