4411 Cherokee Dr

Thunderbird Bay, TX 76857

$64,000B-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 648 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 361 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $829/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$336
• Tax + insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$23
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $257/mo
• Annual: $3,079/yr
• Cap rate: 11.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.18%
• DSCR: 1.76
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $17,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $64k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($829 rent vs $64k).
• It's been on market 361 days — a 12% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $56k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $531 of equity ($442 loan paydown + $89 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,233 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• May ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #729 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.0% in Thunderbird Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 361 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.