4411 Cherokee Dr · Thunderbird Bay, TX 76857

$64,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 648 sqft · SingleFamily · 361 Days on market

0.25 ac lot $99/sqft · 10% above area Est $58k · 10% over $23/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the Thunderbird Bay Subdivision on Lake Brownwood, this 2 bedroom 1.5b bath home has lots to offer. The home is nested on 2 lots and includes a very nice 2 car carport, storage building and a dog kennel. Attached to the home is a lovely large screened in front porch that is perfect to sit back and watch the wild deer graze. The HOA has much to offer which includes: swimming pool, playground, fishing pier, boat dock, boat ramp and much more. Due to the HOA the roads are private, so golf carts and such are allowed and are great to ride around to admire the large number of wildlife and rolling hills.

Key facts

• 2 car carport
• Storage building
• 2 lots

Tags

• THUNDERBIRD BAY SUBDIVISION
• LAKE BROWNWOOD
• 2 LOTS
• 2 CAR CARPORT
• STORAGE BUILDING
• DOG KENNEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($829 rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.0% in Thunderbird Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,233 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• May ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #729 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $531 of equity ($442 loan paydown + $89 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 361 days — a 12% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 361 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.18%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,378
• List price: $64,000
• Delta: 9.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $14,871
• Equity at exit: $19,028

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $42,802
• Equity at exit: $23,231

Cash invested: $17,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76857

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $829 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$336
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $157/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $504

Max offer price $64,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $275	+0% $257	+5% $238	+10% $220
Rent	-10% $191	-5% $224	+0% $257	+5% $289	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $289	-0.5pp $273	base $257	+0.5pp $240	+1.0pp $223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,000
• Closing costs: $1,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $64,000 Active 361 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,000 Active 359 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,000 Active 358 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,000 Active 357 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,000 Active 356 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,000 Active 355 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,000 Active 354 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 687-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $64,000 Active 353 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $66,900 Active 350 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $66,900 Active 349 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $66,900 Active 348 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $66,900 Active 346 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $66,900 Active 344 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $66,900 Active 343 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $66,900 Active 342 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $66,900 Active 341 DOM
18. 2026-01-30
    price $66,900 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Located in the Thunderbird Bay Subdivision on Lake Brownwood, this 2 bedroom 1.5b bath home has lots to offer. The home is nested on 2 lots and includes a very nice 2 car carport, storage building and a dog kennel. Attached to the home is a lovely large screened in front porch that is perfect to sit back and watch the wild deer graze. The HOA has much to offer which includes: swimming pool, playground, fishing pier, boat dock, boat ramp and much more. Due to the HOA the roads are private, so golf carts and such are allowed and are great to ride around to admire the large number of wildlife and rolling hills.

19. 2025-10-16
    price $70,000 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Located in the Thunderbird Bay Subdivision on Lake Brownwood, this 2 bedroom 1.5b bath home has lots to offer. The home is nested on 2 lots and includes a very nice 2 car carport, storage building and a dog kennel. Attached to the home is a lovely large screened in front porch that is perfect to sit back and watch the wild deer graze. The HOA has much to offer which includes: swimming pool, playground, fishing pier, boat dock, boat ramp and much more. Due to the HOA the roads are private, so golf carts and such are allowed and are great to ride around to admire the large number of wildlife and rolling hills.

20. 2025-08-11
    price $72,500 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Located in the Thunderbird Bay Subdivision on Lake Brownwood, this 2 bedroom 1.5b bath home has lots to offer. The home is nested on 2 lots and includes a very nice 2 car carport, storage building and a dog kennel. Attached to the home is a lovely large screened in front porch that is perfect to sit back and watch the wild deer graze. The HOA has much to offer which includes: swimming pool, playground, fishing pier, boat dock, boat ramp and much more. Due to the HOA the roads are private, so golf carts and such are allowed and are great to ride around to admire the large number of wildlife and rolling hills.

21. 2025-06-24
    listed $75,000 Active 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Located in the Thunderbird Bay Subdivision on Lake Brownwood, this 2 bedroom 1.5b bath home has lots to offer. The home is nested on 2 lots and includes a very nice 2 car carport, storage building and a dog kennel. Attached to the home is a lovely large screened in front porch that is perfect to sit back and watch the wild deer graze. The HOA has much to offer which includes: swimming pool, playground, fishing pier, boat dock, boat ramp and much more. Due to the HOA the roads are private, so golf carts and such are allowed and are great to ride around to admire the large number of wildlife and rolling hills.

22. 2024-12-02
    soldstatus Closed 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Located in the Thunderbird Bay subdivision on Lake Brownwood, this 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home might be just what you are looking for. The home is on 2 lots and includes a nice 2 car carport along with a storage building and kennel. The screened in porch is nice for rainy days and keeping small bugs at bay. With the home comes all the access the HOA has to offer which includes: swimming pool, play grounds, boat ramp, boat dock and must more. Due to the HOA the roads are private, so golf carts and such area allowed and are great to ride around and admire the large amount of wildlife and rolling hills.

23. 2024-11-21
    status Pending 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Located in the Thunderbird Bay subdivision on Lake Brownwood, this 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home might be just what you are looking for. The home is on 2 lots and includes a nice 2 car carport along with a storage building and kennel. The screened in porch is nice for rainy days and keeping small bugs at bay. With the home comes all the access the HOA has to offer which includes: swimming pool, play grounds, boat ramp, boat dock and must more. Due to the HOA the roads are private, so golf carts and such area allowed and are great to ride around and admire the large amount of wildlife and rolling hills.

24. 2024-09-27
    historical Active Option Contract 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Located in the Thunderbird Bay subdivision on Lake Brownwood, this 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home might be just what you are looking for. The home is on 2 lots and includes a nice 2 car carport along with a storage building and kennel. The screened in porch is nice for rainy days and keeping small bugs at bay. With the home comes all the access the HOA has to offer which includes: swimming pool, play grounds, boat ramp, boat dock and must more. Due to the HOA the roads are private, so golf carts and such area allowed and are great to ride around and admire the large amount of wildlife and rolling hills.

25. 2024-09-05
    listed $53,000 Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Located in the Thunderbird Bay subdivision on Lake Brownwood, this 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home might be just what you are looking for. The home is on 2 lots and includes a nice 2 car carport along with a storage building and kennel. The screened in porch is nice for rainy days and keeping small bugs at bay. With the home comes all the access the HOA has to offer which includes: swimming pool, play grounds, boat ramp, boat dock and must more. Due to the HOA the roads are private, so golf carts and such area allowed and are great to ride around and admire the large amount of wildlife and rolling hills.

26. 2023-12-13
    historical
27. 2023-07-21
    price $50,000
28. 2023-07-15
    price $55,000
29. 2023-06-27
    price $57,500
30. 2023-06-06
    price $58,000
31. 2023-04-29
    price $60,000
32. 2023-03-08
    listed $65,000 Active
33. 2018-09-26
    soldstatus Sold
34. 2018-09-05
    status Pending
35. 2018-08-25
    historical Active Option Contract
36. 2018-08-17
    price $35,900
37. 2018-06-13
    price $39,900
38. 2017-10-23
    listed $42,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $157 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,014/yr (+$85/mo · 646.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,585
• − Property taxes: −$157
• − Insurance: −$320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$796
• − Management: −$796
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$1,862
• Taxable income: $2,157
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$518
• After-tax cash flow: $2,561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: May ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829520
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,809
• Composite: 36.31/100
• National rank: #9397
• State rank: #729 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Thunderbird Bay

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1233
• US rank: #21564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thunderbird Bay, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,118

Population outlook (Brown County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,381 people
• By 2030: 38,288 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 38,120 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 38,227 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 39,362 · +2.6%
• By 2100: 39,171 · +2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Serbian 7% Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Brown

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.7% · R 86.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -61.5pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+72.6 2016: R+74.5 2012: R+71.7 2008: R+61.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Current HPI: 101.8877
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+55.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $66,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $70,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $72,500 NTREIS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $75,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-02 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-11-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-09-27 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-09-05 Listed $53,000 NTREIS
• 2023-12-13 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-07-21 Price Changed $50,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-15 Price Changed $55,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-27 Price Changed $57,500 NTREIS
• 2023-06-06 Price Changed $58,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-29 Price Changed $60,000 NTREIS
• 2023-03-08 Listed $65,000 NTREIS
• 2018-09-26 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-09-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-08-25 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2018-08-17 Price Changed $35,900 NTREIS
• 2018-06-13 Price Changed $39,900 NTREIS
• 2017-10-23 Listed $42,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+27.8%/yr

Latest (2019): $157 · +229.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.