445 Moores Mill Rd Unit 445-2

Bel Air, MD 21014

$145,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 738 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,505/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$456
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-166/mo
• Annual: $-1,998/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (20.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#19 in MD, #563 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $145k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.9% in Bel Air — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?