445 Moores Mill Rd Unit 445-2 · Bel Air, MD 21014

$145,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 738 sqft · Condo public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1970 $196/sqft · 15% below area Est $170k · 15% under $456/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here's a ground floor unit with easy access and walking distance to many stores and attractions. A clean unit with the laundry/storage room access very close. An especially desirable for ground floor units! The home is in good condition with a BRAND NEW BATH TUB INSTALLED! AND THAT'S NOT ALL!!! IN THIS HOME, THE GAS/HEAT AND BASIC CABLE INCLUDED IN THE ASSOCIATION PAYMENT!!! A convenient location: WALK TO STORES, RESTAURANTS AND MAIN STREET ACTIVITIES!!

Key facts

• $456 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (20.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.9% in Bel Air — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#19 in MD, #563 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $145k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,588 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,600
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -14.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-35,671
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-50,992
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21014

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,505 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $944/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$456
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,716

Max offer price $115,588

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
138 Alice Ann St Unit 140 Bel Air, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$1,495	$2.14	44d	1	0.82mi
204 Idlewild Rd Unit 1B Bel Air, MD	1.0	1.0	500	$1,383	$2.77	3d	1	1.33mi
201 Idlewild Rd Bel Air, MD	2.0	1.0–1.5	885	$1,796	$2.03	2d	28	1.36mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $456 · $5,472/yr
• Likely covers: gascable
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 522-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $145,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $155,000 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Here's a ground floor unit with easy access and walking distance to many stores and attractions. A clean unit with the laundry/storage room access very close. An especially desirable for ground floor units! The home is in good condition with a BRAND NEW BATH TUB INSTALLED! AND THAT'S NOT ALL!!! IN THIS HOME, THE GAS/HEAT AND BASIC CABLE INCLUDED IN THE ASSOCIATION PAYMENT!!! A convenient location: WALK TO STORES, RESTAURANTS AND MAIN STREET ACTIVITIES!!

16. 2026-03-19
    price $165,000 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Here's a ground floor unit with easy access and walking distance to many stores and attractions. A clean unit with the laundry/storage room access very close. An especially desirable for ground floor units! The home is in good condition with a BRAND NEW BATH TUB INSTALLED! AND THAT'S NOT ALL!!! IN THIS HOME, THE GAS/HEAT AND BASIC CABLE INCLUDED IN THE ASSOCIATION PAYMENT!!! A convenient location: WALK TO STORES, RESTAURANTS AND MAIN STREET ACTIVITIES!!

17. 2026-03-05
    status Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Here's a ground floor unit with easy access and walking distance to many stores and attractions. A clean unit with the laundry/storage room access very close. An especially desirable for ground floor units! The home is in good condition with a BRAND NEW BATH TUB INSTALLED! AND THAT'S NOT ALL!!! IN THIS HOME, THE GAS/HEAT AND BASIC CABLE INCLUDED IN THE ASSOCIATION PAYMENT!!! A convenient location: WALK TO STORES, RESTAURANTS AND MAIN STREET ACTIVITIES!!

18. 2026-02-26
    historical 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Here's a ground floor unit with easy access and walking distance to many stores and attractions. A clean unit with the laundry/storage room access very close. An especially desirable for ground floor units! The home is in good condition with a BRAND NEW BATH TUB INSTALLED! AND THAT'S NOT ALL!!! IN THIS HOME, THE GAS/HEAT AND BASIC CABLE INCLUDED IN THE ASSOCIATION PAYMENT!!! A convenient location: WALK TO STORES, RESTAURANTS AND MAIN STREET ACTIVITIES!!

19. 2026-02-21
    listed $170,000 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Here's a ground floor unit with easy access and walking distance to many stores and attractions. A clean unit with the laundry/storage room access very close. An especially desirable for ground floor units! The home is in good condition with a BRAND NEW BATH TUB INSTALLED! AND THAT'S NOT ALL!!! IN THIS HOME, THE GAS/HEAT AND BASIC CABLE INCLUDED IN THE ASSOCIATION PAYMENT!!! A convenient location: WALK TO STORES, RESTAURANTS AND MAIN STREET ACTIVITIES!!

20. 2026-02-19
    historical $170,000 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Here's a ground floor unit with easy access and walking distance to many stores and attractions. A clean unit with the laundry/storage room access very close. An especially desirable for ground floor units! The home is in good condition with a BRAND NEW BATH TUB INSTALLED! AND THAT'S NOT ALL!!! IN THIS HOME, THE GAS/HEAT AND BASIC CABLE INCLUDED IN THE ASSOCIATION PAYMENT!!! A convenient location: WALK TO STORES, RESTAURANTS AND MAIN STREET ACTIVITIES!!

21. 2006-04-04
    soldstatus $62,000
22. 1999-12-13
    soldstatus $35,500
23. 1999-11-30
    soldstatus $35,500
24. 1999-10-23
    historical
25. 1999-08-23
    listed $36,500
26. 1997-01-08
    historical
27. 1997-01-07
    historical
28. 1996-07-23
    listed
29. 1996-07-08
    listed
30. 1990-09-12
    soldstatus $48,400
31. 1983-11-17
    soldstatus $35,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $944 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,262 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$318/yr (+$27/mo · 33.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$944
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,445
• − Management: −$1,445
• − HOA: −$5,472
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$4,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,035
• After-tax cash flow: $-963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #563

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living C Crime C+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 68,720
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 38,707
• Household income: $116,970
• Rent vs Own: 24.2% rent · 75.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 912.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.39%
• Current HPI: 265.5259
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.79%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+331.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-19 Coming Soon $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1999-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $35,500 Public Records
• 1999-11-30 Sold (MLS) $35,500 MRIS
• 1999-10-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 1999-08-23 Listed $36,500 MRIS
• 1997-01-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 1997-01-07 Delisted — MRIS
• 1996-07-23 Listed — MRIS
• 1996-07-08 Listed — MRIS
• 1990-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $48,400 Public Records
• 1983-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $35,950 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $944 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.