772 Lincoln Ave E

Tenino, WA 98589

$99,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $1,331/mo
• Annual: $15,968/yr
• Cap rate: 22.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.61%
• DSCR: 3.56
• 1% rule: 2.47%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#218 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Tenino School District (rural): math 42% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #135 of 291 in WA (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Parkside Elementary (296 students, 51% FRL); Tenino Middle School (334 students, 56% FRL); Tenino High School (375 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 2.8% in Tenino — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.