772 Lincoln Ave E · Tenino, WA 98589

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1993 7,800 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home in the Tenino Estates community! Ideally located within walking distance to schools, restaurants, and shopping, this property offers both convenience and comfort. Inside, you’ll find an excellent layout featuring a spacious living area, 2 bedrooms, and a large office with elegant French doors that could easily serve as a flex space. The primary bedroom offers a comfortable retreat, while the mature landscaping creates a peaceful outdoor setting. Outside, enjoy plenty of room for gardening and outdoor activities, plus a yard shed perfect for storing tools and toys, and ample parking space. This is a home you won’t want to miss!

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Mature landscaping
• 7,800 sq ft lot

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• LARGE OFFICE WITH FRENCH DOORS
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• PEACEFUL OUTDOOR SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Buyer brokerage compensation: 3%
• Financial info: Land lease: $900; Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Tenino Estates park (approximately 55 homes); Senior exemption available; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; see remarks); High-speed internet available in park; Park approved for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered open parking; 2 open parking spaces; Driveway shed for storage
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water; Park septic sewer; Electric water heater located outside back door; Power provided by Puget Sound Energy
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide; Single-story; South-facing; Entry with front door on left side
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Manufactured after 6/15/1976
• Exterior features: Patio/Porch/Deck; Landscaped; Wood exterior; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: High-efficiency heating (90%+); Forced air; Heat pump; High-efficiency cooling (90%+); Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Jetted/soaking tub; Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fan(s); Double pane windows; Walk-in closet; Bath off primary
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 2.8% in Tenino — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#218 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Tenino School District (rural): math 42% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #135 of 291 in WA (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tenino High School (375 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.61%
• DSCR: 3.56
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $428,400
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
625 Garfield Ave E	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-7%)	22mo	$85,000	$66	60
169 Wichman St N	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-7%)	5mo	$396,750	$306	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $68,698
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $168,904
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98589

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $533/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $1,331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $766

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,387	-5% $1,359	+0% $1,331	+5% $1,303	+10% $1,275
Rent	-10% $1,137	-5% $1,234	+0% $1,331	+5% $1,427	+10% $1,524
Rate	-1.0pp $1,381	-0.5pp $1,356	base $1,331	+0.5pp $1,305	+1.0pp $1,279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
447 Sussex Ave W Tenino, WA	3.0	1.0	1402	$2,450	$1.75	14d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $99,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-05-26
    listed $99,000 Active
11. 2020-09-17
    soldstatus $87,500 Sold
12. 2020-09-04
    status Pending
13. 2020-08-26
    status Pending Inspection
14. 2020-08-20
    listed $87,500 Active
15. 2004-10-14
    soldstatus $1,950,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$437/yr (+$36/mo · 82.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$533
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,352
• − Management: −$2,352
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $15,243
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,658
• After-tax cash flow: $12,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tenino School District
• NCES district ID: 5308820
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,918
• Composite: 46.11/100
• National rank: #5471
• State rank: #135 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tenino

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6234

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tenino, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,296

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.48%
• Current HPI: 364.8084
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-94.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $99,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-17 Sold (MLS) $87,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-20 Listed $87,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $1,950,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $533 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.